AUTOMOTIVE ENGINE MARKET
- The global automotive engine production in 2020 dropped to ~74M units from 91M units in 2019.
- Every major OEMs have set themselves a timeline which involves the slow termination of engine production.
- Most of the major OEMs have preferred to cease the production & sales of ICE vehicles first in Europe as the emission norms of stricter and the EV adoption is much quicker than other regions
- Gasoline Direct Injection (GDI) is the most popular technology adopted in engine production as it has much higher impact on efficiency than other technologies.
- OEMs such as Mercedes, BMW, VW, Mazda are leading the adoption of GDI globally.
- Toyota, VW Group Honda, GM and Ford are the major automotive engine producers.
With stricter emission norms, rise in EV production and increase in prices of ICE vehicles in some regions one would assume the automotive engine will witness a sharp decline in production.
However, the global volume of ICE vehicles is enormous which will cause the delay in the makeshift and also EVs are facing a certain set of hindrances in few regions (India, Latin America & others) which has ensured the automotive engine market to hold its ground.
Due to slow adoption of EVs and PHEVs in growing markets like India, South East Asia and Latin America the ICE vehicles will continue to remain in the focus for a few more years if not decades.
Many mechanical components like oil pump, coolant pump, HVAC compressor will be electrified and thus the sub-component suppliers need to align themselves with this global vehicle electrification trend to stay relevant.
AUTOMOTIVE ENGINE MARKET DYNAMICS
In order to improve the efficiency in parallel to complying with emission norms OEMs have been adopting different engine technologies over the past few years. Gasoline Direct Injection (GDI) has witnessed higher adoption than any other technologies.
8 of the largest car manufacturers installed GDI in more than 75% of the vehicles they produced, with several near the 100% mark.
Turbo charging and stop/start are two other engine technologies that reached a production share of about 30% Whereas, Cylinder Deactivation (CD) technology was at 12%
At the Zwickau plant in Germany, VW produced its last car with a combustion engine. From the beginning of 2021, the Zwickau plant produced only VW’s ID.3 and ID.4 models.
AUTOMOTIVE ENGINE MARKET SEGMENTATION
- Asia Ex China
By Vehicle Type
- Passenger Cars
- Commercial Vehicles
By Engine Capacity (in cc)
By Propulsion Type
- Natural Gas
- Fuel Injection System
- Intake Manifold Valvetrain
AUTOMOTIVE ENGINE MARKET BY GEOGRAPHY
In US, the average size of engine is 3.5L among the top 10 selling vehicles. The number is much higher among the top 5 sellers as it is dominated by pick-ups and SUVs, it is around 5L.
V6 was the most common cylinder design in the region, followed by inline 4 type.
In Europe, the average size of engines is only 1.2-1.5L among the top sellers. Likewise, the cylinder arrangement design was mostly inline 4 type and some of them were inline-3 too.
The percentage of GDI engines was higher in US and Europe. Almost every gasoline driven car in these regions were of Direct Injection type.
The average size of engines in China was around 1.5-2L among the top 50 selling cars in 2020. Toyota RAV4 was one of the very few models to be equipped with a 2.5L engine. Almost 95% of these cars were fitted with inline 4 cylinder design with few models of inline 3 type.
In China, 5 out of top 10 sellers were fitted with the GDI engines, whereas the rest of them were MPFI.
GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE ENGINE PRODUCTION
The global automotive engine production volume was ~96 Million units in 2018 and in 2019 it declined by 5-6% to 91M units. In 2020, the production number declined by ~19% to 74M units. By 2025, it is estimated that the annual production will come down to 90M units.
In UK, engine production in 2020 fell by 27%, one of the few regions which witnessed a steep fall in production. The production numbers declined from 2.5M to 1.8M units from 2019 to 2020.
According to UK’s SMMT, engine production in May 2021 was double compared to the same month in 2020. UK factories produced 116,639 units in May 2021. However, this figure is still 47.6% down on the five-year average for the month.
In the Jan-May period the production increased by 18.8% Y-o-Y, while the demand was driven by the domestic market.
GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE ENGINE PRODUCTION MARKET SHARE
During 2014-2017,the market share of automotive engine manufacturers has remained almost same for top 2 players but it has declined for General Motors and Hyundai-KIA. Renault-Nissan alliance and Honda have been able to increase their share from 8.6% to 10.1% and 5% to 5.4% respectively.
FUTURE OF DIESEL ENGINE MARKET
The global Commercial vehicle market is estimated at ~10 Million units per annum and 80+% of them are powered by Diesel, and the rest by natural gas, electricity and gasoline.
In the passenger car segment, estimated at ~80 Million units per annum ~87% are powered by gasoline and the remaining by Diesel, CNG/LPG.
The world’s biggest diesel engine factory Tremery, France has shifted its interest in producing electric motors.
From less than 10% of output in 2020, electric motor production at the factory will double to around 180,000 in 2021. The number is expected to reach beyond 900,000 units per year by 2025.
Diesel car sales in Europe shrunk from 32% share in 2019 to 28% in 2020. The number is expected to decline further in the coming years with many OEMs putting an end to the production of diesel models.
In US, passenger vehicles propelled by diesel accounted for only 4.5% of the overall sales. About 650,000 diesel run passenger vehicles were sold in 2020 and the pick-up segment occupied the highest share
In India, the diesel-powered passenger cars share dropped from 32.5% to 18.6% in 2020. The transition of BS4 to BS6 led to the increase in prices of these cars. This also led to discontinuation of entry level diesel models of many OEMs.
FUTURE OF GASOLINE ENGINE MARKET
With Diesel`s share shrinking, gasoline engine is now the prime focus for further improvement.
Going forward, we can expect the integration of Atkinson and Miller cycle engines + GDI (Gasoline Direct Injection) + VGT (Variable Geometry turbo) on a much bigger scale.
Currently, almost every gasoline powered car from Mercedes is fitted with the GDI engines. Apart from Mercedes, VW, BMW and Mazda are the other 3 OEMs who have adopted the GDI engines in most of their models.
Toyota and FCA vehicles had one of the lowest penetrations of GDI models with less than 10% across the world.
PSA vehicles have incorporated GPF in all its gasoline direct injection engine models from December 2017.
VW– Audi`s revised 2.5L TFSI is now more compact and 26kg lighter than the previous model. Fitting the engine with an aluminium crankcase alone allowed Audi to achieve weight reduction of 18kg.
Toyota– World`s second biggest producer of auto engines after VW group in 2019 had highest share(~52%) of electrified vehicles globally, and 100% of them are powered by gasoline engines.
Hyundai- KIA – In July 2019, Hyundai showcased its new CVVD(Continuously variable valve duration) engine, which regulates the duration of valve opening and closing as per driving conditions. This optimization provides 4% boost in performance, almost similar improvement in fuel efficiency, and 12% emissions reduction.
FUTURE OF CNG AND LPG ENGINE MARKET
In Europe, the LPG fuelled cars’ registration increased steeply in the 4th quarter of 2020 and for the entire year about 200K units were sold in the alternative fuels segment. These vehicles accounted for 2.1% of the overall market share
The LPG market is bigger than the CNG sector in Europe. Italy was leading in the sales of LPG passenger vehicles followed by Spain.
In March 2020, VW Group stopped the production of Natural Gas fuelled cars as the OEM wants to focus more on EVs and are planning to hit 32M units of EVs by 2029.
The drop in demand for diesel vehicles has also benefited CNG vehicles in India. CNG cars’ share in India increased to 6.1% in 2020 from 3.55% in 2019.
MAJOR OEMs PHASING OUT ICE VEHICLES
- Opel recently in July 2021, announced it would be stopping passenger cars with combustion engines from 2028 in Europe.
- In June 2021, Audi announced that it will stop manufacturing diesel & petrol cars from 2033. Audi aims to have more than 20 e-models in its line-up by 2025.
- BAIC, one of the leading car manufacturers in China, is planning to stop production & sales of ICE vehicles across China by 2025.
- German automobile giant Volkswagen has announced it would stop the production of engine run cars by 2023-2035 period in Europe.
- Mercedes-Benz is planning to phase out the ICE vehicles by 2039.
- Sweden manufacturer Volvo is planning to have only EVs in its global product line-up by 2030.
LATEST TRENDS IN AUTOMOTIVE ENGINE MARKET
- In March 2021, Subaru launched the new Outback in the European market and is equipped with 2.5L Direct Injection, naturally aspirated, horizontally opposed 4-cylinder engine.
- In November 2020, Chinese manufacturer BYD unveiled a high-efficiency version of the 1.5-L Xiaoyun engine, dedicated for use with PHEV.
- New Ram 1500 TRX is equipped with a 6.2-liter supercharged Hemi V8 engine and it is rated with 702HP output power and 881 Nm of torque.
- In August 2020, GM introduced a new 5.7L V8 350 small-block engine, expected to replace the power unit for older SUVs, trucks and vans.
- In 2020, FCA launched a new 12-volt BSG 3 cylinder 1.0L naturally-aspirated engine for the models Fiat Panda, Fiat 500 and Lancia Ypsilon in Europe.
- In 2020, FCA developed a new 3.0L V-6 gasoline engine adding turbulent jet ignition (TJI) technology, increasing power output.
AUTOMOTIVE ENGINE MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
The automotive engine market is estimated to be $XXB in 2022 and is estimated to be $ XXB by 2030 and the CAGR for the period (2023-2030) is estimated to be XX%.
The cost of engine has grown significantly over the years with the incorporation of 48V mild-hybrid engines in passenger cars.
These mild hybrid engines are slowly expected to be adopted by 2-wheelers too. In June 2021, Yamaha launched India’s first mild-hybrid scooter.
Vehicle engine oils are now available from Uno Minda. BS VI-compliant automobile engine oils for two-wheelers have been introduced by Uno Minda, formerly known as Minda Industries Limited.
The Indian company Uno Minda, with headquarters in Gurgaon, is a top Tier 1 provider of exclusive automotive solutions to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).
The company offers three different kinds of its vehicle engine lubricants under the PerfoMaxx, Purosynth, and Ultimo brands, depending on whether they are mineral oil-based, semi-synthetic, or entirely synthetic.
High viscosity, which guarantees excellent engine wear protection, is the most prominent characteristic of these lubricants.
Royal E is also suggested for use in Royal Enfield motorcycles, notably the Classic and Bullet 350, and is specifically created for UCE engines.
The packaging for these goods will be entirely eco-friendly and lead-free. Uno Minda is dedicated to giving its customers the greatest products while using high quality ingredients to lessen their carbon footprint.
These BS VI-compliant automobile engine lubricants were created in accordance with our M3 credo, which stands for “more life, more mileage, and more performance.”
Co-development of hydrogen small mobility engines by Yamaha, Honda, Kawasaki, and Suzuki Yamaha Motor Co., Honda Motor Co., Kawasaki Motors, and Suzuki Motor Corporation now have permission from the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry to establish the technological research association HySE (Hydrogen Small mobility and Engine technology), which will create hydrogen-powered engines for small mobility that can be installed in Japanese motorcycles, small marine vessels, construction machinery, and mini-vehicles.
The number of research and development projects attempting to commercialize hydrogen engine mobility is growing as the mobility sector searches for solutions to decarbonize.
However, using hydrogen for transportation does provide a unique set of difficulties. These characteristics, which can lead to unstable combustion, include a quick flame speed and a sizable zone of ignition.
The constrained fuel tank capacity of smaller cars is one of the other technological problems.
The HySE collaboration will use each company’s unique experience with petrol engines to develop a design standard for small hydrogen-powered engines and progress research in this field in order to overcome these technological obstacles.They are overjoyed to announce the association’s anticipated creation.
NEW PRODUCT LAUNCH
New Automotive Engine Powered By Toxic Ammonia Launched By China’s GAC. It appears that GAC has succeeded in creating an engine with cylinder pressure high enough to prevent part of the surplus nitrogen from becoming a problem.
According to GAC’s Qi Hongzhong via Bloomberg, the 2.0 litre I-4 has a 90 percent reduction in carbon emissions when compared to “conventional fuels” and can generate about 161 horsepower.
Using ammonia as a fuel presents two significant challenges. Its poisonous nature is the first and most evident reason.
Given enough exposure to ammonia in liquid or gas form, which is a solvent that can dissolve alkali metals, both people and animals can die.
Because the transportation industry is already equipped to manage the distribution and transportation of dangerous materials, it has been explored as a diesel fuel substitute for that industry.
It is also employed in rocket engines, a field that is accustomed to using poisonous fuels like hydrazine and UDMH (sometimes referred to as “Devil’s venom”) as a fuel.
The X-15 rocket-powered aircraft, which reached a top speed of 4,520 mph, was the most well-known application of ammonia as a rocket propellant.
Ammonia in its liquid form burns slowly but has an energy density of 37.95 kWh/gal (about 0.88 of a petrol gallon equivalent), which is about one-third that of diesel fuel.
No CO2, no hydrocarbons, and no soot are produced as it burns, making it a carbon-free emission.
Don’t celebrate just yet; without an engine using a high compression ratio or boost, it does emit a significant amount of nitrogen into the environment, causing the production of ammonia and ozone, which can cause acid rain and harm the ability to breathe.
They don’t think ammonia will ever be used in passenger cars because it is so difficult to handle. There is simply no infrastructure to even fuel these engines due to its toxicity problems.
It may be far better to use ammonia in the manufacturing of hydrogen than to use it as the infrastructure for EV charging, even though hydrogen has a harder time than EVs do.
In North America, Cummins launched the X10, the following engine in the fuel-independent series. With the flexibility to handle both medium- and heavy-duty applications, this engine, designated as a member of the X engine family, is positioned to replace both the L9 and the X12.
The X10 will play a significant role in meeting client needs and will be available in a range of ratings from 320 horsepower to 450 horsepower (torque 1000 – 1650 lb-ft / 1356 – 2237 Nm).
According to Cummins, the company will continue to support diesel since it is expected to be a crucial technology for the commercial vehicle sector for many years to come.
Though initially only accessible in Europe and North America, the engine will eventually be made for off-highway use and introduced in additional locations.
When it debuts , the new X10 diesel will produce 75% fewer NOx emissions than is necessary. It will offer a significant boost in fuel economy while being in compliance with US EPA requirements.
The X10 architecture uses an aftertreatment heating solution and belt-driven, high output 48-volt alternator that are optimised for ever-tougher emission rules. It is also expandable to various cutting-edge combustion technologies.
Customers have the option of using B20 or renewable diesel to further reduce carbon emissions.
Depending on the application, the engine can be combined with a number of gearboxes, including the Eaton Cummins Endurant, to allow extra driving benefits and efficiency gains.
The top 5 producers of automotive engines are VW, Toyota, General Motors, Honda and Ford Motor Company.
Revenue generated from the Cummins’ engine segment shrunk by 2% to 32% in 2020. Cummins manufactures engines with a displacement range of 2.8 to 15L and horsepower ranging from 48 to 715.
Cummins’ major customers in the heavy-duty truck engine segment include PACCAR, Navistar and Daimler Trucks.
The main players in the LPG market are FCA (now part of Stellantis) and Renault. In 2019, Renault Duster was Italy’s top-selling LPG model followed by the Panda and Lancia Ypsilon minicars.
- Toyota Motors
- General Motors
- Hyundai- KIA
- Ford Motor Company
- Nissan Motors
- VW Group
- BMW Group
- Daimler AG
- Geely Group
KEY CONTENTS OF THE REPORT INCLUDE
- The most important shift in OEMs engine development and manufacturing
- Is there a growing market for innovative engine coating/ thermal encapsulation
- What will be the future of non-electric, alternate fuel engines like CNG, LPG and E85
- Top 10 engines and their derivatives which will power 31% of global production in 2021
- In the light of declining diesel passenger vehicle sales,what will happen to CRDI system market and its sub-component manufacturing?
- Market Dynamics (Trends, Drivers, and Challenges)
- OE-supplier alignment in the automotive engine market
- Market share and competitive landscape of Global Automotive Engines Market
- R&D Capex for 2023-2030
- Market Size, Market Segmentation, Market Forecast (Volume and Value)
- Fuel type (Gasoline, Diesel, CNG, LPG, E85)
- Sub-components( Piston, Crankshaft, Valves,fuel injection system, Cylinder head,Thermal management, Pumps)
- Power output(HP) (<100,100-150,150-250,>250)
- Geography (Asia, Europe, North America and Special focus on China)
- Vehicle Application (Passenger Vehicle and Commercial Vehicle)
- Engine sourcing(in-sourced and outsourced)
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