China Electric Bus Market 2024-2030

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    Published- Sep 2020 Number Of Pages - 58
    COVID updated report 2023 Update

    CHINA ELECTRIC BUS MARKET

    The global electric bus market has got to a stage where it is now because of advancements made in Chinese electric bus manufacturers. BYD was among the first bus manufacturers to show an electric bus concept in 2011 in Europe and now its electric buses are in use in more than 100 European cities. 

     

    Info Graphic: China Electric Bus market

     

    In the global market, Mercedes, MAN, Volvo have launched their all-electric buses with mass production timeline, but none of them are as price competitive as Chinese manufacturers.

     

    KEY FINDINGS

    1. BEVs will see an increased growth as compared to PHEVs. Fuel cell vehicles are being experimented across various provinces but the infrastructure development is not at par with electric vehicles hence will require more time to compete substantially with electric vehicles
    2. Majority of the buses sold are sold to governmental organizations to run the public service bus in various cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen etc with 100% of the buses used for public transport in Shenzhen being electric
    3. Due to the COVID, there was a decrease in production and sales as the factories were shut for ~4 weeks and demand for the buses too. For reference China sold 437,400 units buses in 2020, down by 4.05%. The medium & large-sized buses’ sales were down by 32% and 23.3% respectively. 45,000 & 58,100 units of medium & large sized buses were sold respectively in 2020.
    4. Light buses accounted for 334,400 of these units up by 6.5%
    5. In 2020 Electric buses in China accounted for 17% of total buses sales. The volume dropped by 12.3% to 74,400. Plug-in Hybrid buses sold in 2020 were 4,100 units down by 28%
    6. China had of 59.1% their public fleet transport vehicle sales electric in 2019
    7. Regional governments in China are shifting their public transport to electrified vehicles thereby driving this segment across country which is the growth driver. This will see increase till a substantial portion of the fleet is electric which will be coupled with infrastructure development
    8. The domestic market leaders are Yutong, BYD, Zhong tong and Winner way with 47% of the buses being supplied by these 4 OEMs in H1 2020. Yutong is the market leader in China for electric buses and is looking to strike partnerships outside China for manufacturing
    9. The market was driven by subsidies and will now be driven by cheaper battery prices and development of supporting infrastructure inclusive of fast charging across China
    10. The battery supply chain for electric bus is mainly comprised of CATL, Guo Xuan, EVE, BYD and Menguli

     

    CHINA ELECTIC BUS MARKET DYNAMICS

    Almost all Electric buses in China have Permanent magnet Synchronous motor with varying power output in 200-300hp range. The battery capacity of Pure-electric buses varies between 150kWh- 300kWh depending on length and application.

     

    Much of the China electric bus market has grown on the back of subsidies given by the government. Akai Bus – a leading electric bus manufacturer announced on 3rd Jan 2020 that the company received the national new energy vehicle promotion and application subsidy to the tune of $5.4 Million.

     

    Market Leader Yutong sold about 15,940 E-buses in 2020 followed by BYD with 9.125 units

     

    In 2020, Foton did sales about 2,663 units of Electric Buses a drop of 27% Y-o-Y.

     

    Foton received an order for 2,072 electric buses (210 pure electric, 1,140 PHEV and 722 range extender EV) on 31st Dec 2019 from Beijing Public Transport Holdings (Group) Co., Ltd, received a total of 92 government subsidies totaling $40 Million in 2019.

     

    In 2018-2019, majority (95%) of the electric bus orders were for pure electric buses, but post withdrawal of subsidies in Aug 2019, the trend shifted slightly towards PHEV and range extender hybrid buses. The pure electric buses share in 2020 was 93.7%

     

    In light buses segment, 962 fuel cell buses were sold down by 41.6% Y-o-Y

     

    In the China electric bus market, there will be an increased private demand for 8-10 m compared to 10-12 m. Due to decreased initial capital <8m will see increased private usage from school buses to touring buses.

     

    In terms of vehicle type, BEVs will be preferred across China and other exporting countries but comes with the added cost of infrastructure development. The market growth for PHEV segment will be minimal as focus of OEMs, customers and government is mainly on BEV buses and FCEV buses

     

    Majority of the buses sold are sold to governmental organizations to run the public service bus in various cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen etc. with 100% of the buses used for public transport in Schanze being electric

     

    The domestic market will account for 96% in 2020 of the manufactured buses mainly due to conversion of public transport fleet to electric.

     

    Considering the extremely low temperatures in northern China, CRRC Electric’s buses and coaches are equipped with battery management systems to insulate power batteries from the extreme cold.

     

    CHINA ELECTRIC BUS MARKET SEGMENTATION

    infographic: China electric bus market

     

     

    CHINA ELECTRIC BUS MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST

    The bus market(ICE+ Electric) in China is estimated at $10 Billion per annum.  The electric bus market in China was estimated at ~70,000 units in 2019 or ~14% of overall bus market in terms of volume, de-growing by 30% YOY. In 2020, the China electric bus market further declined to 61k units. The steep drop happened after generous subsidies by the Chinese government were withdrawn on 7th August 2019.

     

    In 2019, majority of the electric buses in China are sold in a handful of cities like Dongguan, Beijing, Suzhou, Shenzhen, Wenzhou, Zhengzhou and Guangzhou. this is in a sharp contast to 2018 sales where Guangzhou alone accounted for 15% of total sales.

     

    Chinese bus manufacturers are also looking at South-East Asian, African and other low volume markets for exports, which will allow them to diversify their earnings and mitigate the risks associated with this evolving market.

     

    BYD signed an agreement Cooperative Framework Agreement for Electric Bus Purchases with DB Regio Bus. According to this agreement, the bus manufacturer will deliver the first batch of 5 units BYD 12-meter electric buses to Esslingen, Baden-Württemberg, Germany. Equipped with highly integrated controllers and 422 kWh batteries, the 12-meter BYD electric bus achieves even higher safety standards and higher energy efficiency.

     

    CHINA ELECTRIC BUS MARKET COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

    China bus market has 25 players in total, accounting for 0.5 Million units per annum but only 12 players are active in electric bus segment.

     

    It is observed that the competition among electric bus manufacturers further intensified in 2020. Yutong occupied first place in the market despite its market share dropping by ~9% to 26%. BYD ranked 2nd with its market share increasing significantly. CRRC Electric completed the top-3 in the sector.

     

    The factors that determine a greater presence in the market include battery supply chain, capacity to manufacture and price point to compete with conventional buses 

     

    In electric bus segment, the cumulative sales of the top ten new energy bus companies in 2020 was 84.5% of the industry’s total sales. Yutong, Zhong tong, CRRC and BYD had a cumulative market share of 57% in 2020.

     

    Most of the domestic players are looking for export opportunities outside China. For example, BYD has less than 7% share of the domestic electric bus market but is the #1 player in India electric bus market (India is world`s third biggest bus market) and is actively expanding in Europe and US.

     

    CATL supplies XX% of the battery capacity deployed in buses followed by BYD with XX% and EVE at X%. BYD’s supplies come from their own buses while CATL supplies to XX out of the top 10 bus manufacturers.

     

    India electric bus market has a requirement of ~5,500 electric buses between 2020-2024, to be fulfilled by various vendors but BYD has already bagged more than 35% of them.

     

    In January 2021, BYD successfully secured a deal of 1,002 units of electric buses from Bogota, Columbia. BYD will cooperate with Super polo and Bus scar, two local bus makers in Columbia to produce the bodies of all 1,002 units.

     

    By the end of 2020, 455 units BYD electric buses had been put into service in San Diego Chile. Apart from Columbia and Chile, BYD has already established a solid presence in Ecuador, Brazil, Barbados, Panama, Costa Rica, Uruguay and Argentina.

     

    CHINA ELECTRIC BUS MARKET COMPANY PROFILES

    1. CRRC Electric
    2. Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co. Ltd.
    3. Haige Bus((Suzhou Jinlong)
    4. Jinlong Bus
    5. Higer Bus Company Limited
    6. Foton Ouhui
    7. Shenlong Bus
    8. BYD Company Limited
    9. Kaiwo Automobile (Nanjing Jinlong)
    10. Zhongtong Bus Holding Co. Ltd.
    11. Ankai Bus
    Sl no Topic
    1 Market Segmentation
    2 Scope of the report
    3 Abbreviations
    4 Research Methodology
    5 Executive Summary
    6 Introduction
    7 Insights from Industry stakeholders
    8 Cost breakdown of Product by sub-components and average profit margin
    9 Disruptive innovation in the Industry
    10 Technology trends in the Industry
    11 Consumer trends in the industry
    12 Recent Production Milestones
    13 Component Manufacturing in US, EU and China
    14 COVID-19 impact on overall market
    15 COVID-19 impact on Production of components
    16 COVID-19 impact on Point of sale
    17 Market Segmentation, Dynamics and Forecast by Geography, 2024-2030
    18 Market Segmentation, Dynamics and Forecast by Product Type, 2024-2030
    19 Market Segmentation, Dynamics and Forecast by Application, 2024-2030
    20 Market Segmentation, Dynamics and Forecast by End use, 2024-2030
    21 Product installation rate by OEM, 2023
    22 Incline/Decline in Average B-2-B selling price in past 5 years
    23 Competition from substitute products
    24 Gross margin and average profitability of suppliers
    25 New product development in past 12 months
    26 M&A in past 12 months
    27 Growth strategy of leading players
    28 Market share of vendors, 2023
    29 Company Profiles
    30 Unmet needs and opportunity for new suppliers
    31 Conclusion
    32 Appendix
       
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