KEY FINDINGS- COMMERCIAL VEHICLE SCR MARKET
- In US, as of Oct 2019, after SCR was mandated in 2011, ~40% of the present Class 3-8 truck fleet(~4 million trucks) now have SCR as a standard fitment. In India, the penetration is ~5% of total fleet and almost all M&HCVs sold now have SCR as standard.
- Unlike early 2010s, when most of the commercial vehicle SCR market was comprised of OE segment, now there is a substantial demand from aftermarket/replacement segment.In past two years, companies like Shell,ENOC,FMT Swiss AG, GP Petroleum have launched their own Diesel exhaust fluids to cater to this segment
- China is now the biggest OE SCR market as almost 3 Million commercial vehicles with Diesel engines are sold every year. After implementation of China VI emission standard on all vehicles by July 2021. It will be 2X bigger than second and third biggest commercial vehicle SCR market i.e US and Europe
Commercial vehicles makeup for only about 10-12% of global new vehicle sales and fleet but are responsible for ~60% share of total vehicular emissions. The high emission share is partly because of their higher engine capacity, higher running time as compared to private vehicles and more than 70% of them being powered by Diesel.
Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) is a mandatory NOx reduction technology fitted on >90% of heavy commercial vehicles after arrival of Euro 4 in Europe (since Mid-2000s), Tier IV in US (since 2010), BS IV in India (since 2017) and Stage IV in China(since 2008). There are exceptions like India based Ashok Leyland`s iEGR technology which doesn’t require an SCR to meet the present emission norms.
- Dosing system
- Navistar International
- Fiat Industrial
- Indian OEMs(Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Mahindra, Eicher)
- Chinese OEMs(Dongfeng, Sinotruck, CNHTC, etc)
- Others(Hino, Scania, MAN etc)
- South Korea
- Latin America
In spite of all the fuss about Diesel being a dirty, polluting fuel and plans by many countries to ban Diesel powered vehicles, the reality is Diesel powered commercial vehicles will remain a preferred choice of fleet operators worldwide, at least till 2030.
The market for the SCR technology is expected to grow during the next 5 years as it is yet to reach a 100% penetration among the diesel engine powered Commercial Vehicles. SCR has witnessed a growth in adoption post-2010 in all regions including India, which is the third biggest commercial vehicle market globally.
The commercial vehicle SCR market could face growing competition from natural gas and electric powertrain. Almost all Class 8 trucks in North America run on Diesel but in 2014 it looked like there was going to be a shift towards Natural gas. Today, however with comparatively lower crude prices globally, it is pretty evident that cheap diesel will have a clean run at least till 2021-2022.
COMMERCIAL VEHICLE SCR MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
In China, world`s biggest commercial vehicle market, new heavy duty truck sales in Jan-Oct 2019 have grown by 0.5% YOY to ~0.98M units.But, old Diesel vehicles face risk in substitution by electric trucks.
For example, By December 2019, more than 10,000 old diesel vehicles will be eliminated. All diesel buses in Jiangning District, Lishui District and Gaochun District will be phased out and upgraded to electric buses.
The national subsidy for replacing a diesel commercial vehicle with electric vehicle ranges between 4,000CNY to 40,000CNY($570-$5,700). The commercial vehicle SCR market is heavily dependent on replacement demand , therefore phase out of old commerical vehicles presents a big challenge to the market.
The commercial vehicle SCR market is estimated at $XXM in 2019 growing at –% CAGR till 2025.
The commercial vehicle SCR market is concentrated among ~10-12 major vendors. The number of companies manufacturing complete SCR system is less than ten, but the number of sub-component manufacturers is more than twenty globally. The technology for manufacturing SCR catalysts is highly complex and thus very few companies are present in this market.
In coming years, we expect most of the SCR suppliers of passenger vehicles will shift focus to commercial vehicles only due to declining share of Diesel in passenger cars in Europe (<30% in H1 2019).
On the other hand, the commercial vehicle SCR suppliers will look to cater to marine and off-highway vehicles for additional business opportunities, due to growing SCR fitment in bigger, stationary engines globally.
- Johnson Matthey Inc.
- Faurecia S.A.
- Cummins Inc.
- Katcon Global
- Tenneco Inc.
- Delphi Technologies
- Durr MEGTEC, LLC
- DCL International Inc.
- Yara International ASA
- BASF SE
- IBIDEN Technologies
- Sud-Chemie India Pvt Limited
THIS REPORT WILL ANSWER FOLLOWING QUESTIONS
- Total addressable market size of commercial vehicle SCR system, by OEM and geography, forecast till 2025
- Average B-2-B price of SCR system and sub-components in commercial vehicle market, by region
- Most important trends in new commercial vehicle development and the impact of electric commercial vehicles, by region on commercial vehicle SCR market
- Technical changes in high volume platforms of commercial vehicle SCR system, related to dosing /injection mechanism and chemical catalysts
- Market share of leading vendors, their new product strategy and OE-supplier alignment