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The global electric bus market has got to a stage where it is now because of advancements made in Chinese electric bus manufacturers. BYD was among the first bus manufacturers to show an electric bus concept in 2011 in Europe and now its electric buses are in use in more than 100 European cities.
In the global market, Mercedes, MAN, Volvo have launched their all-electric buses with mass production timeline, but none of them are as price competitive as Chinese manufacturers.
Almost all Electric buses in China have Permanent magnet Synchronous motor with varying power output in 200-300hp range. The battery capacity of Pure-electric buses varies between 150kWh- 300kWh depending on length and application.
Much of the China electric bus market has grown on the back of subsidies given by the government. Akai Bus – a leading electric bus manufacturer announced on 3rd Jan 2020 that the company received the national new energy vehicle promotion and application subsidy to the tune of $5.4 Million.
Market Leader Yutong sold about 15,940 E-buses in 2020 followed by BYD with 9.125 units
In 2020, Foton did sales about 2,663 units of Electric Buses a drop of 27% Y-o-Y.
Foton received an order for 2,072 electric buses (210 pure electric, 1,140 PHEV and 722 range extender EV) on 31st Dec 2019 from Beijing Public Transport Holdings (Group) Co., Ltd, received a total of 92 government subsidies totaling $40 Million in 2019.
In 2018-2019, majority (95%) of the electric bus orders were for pure electric buses, but post withdrawal of subsidies in Aug 2019, the trend shifted slightly towards PHEV and range extender hybrid buses. The pure electric buses share in 2020 was 93.7%
In light buses segment, 962 fuel cell buses were sold down by 41.6% Y-o-Y
In the China electric bus market, there will be an increased private demand for 8-10 m compared to 10-12 m. Due to decreased initial capital <8m will see increased private usage from school buses to touring buses.
In terms of vehicle type, BEVs will be preferred across China and other exporting countries but comes with the added cost of infrastructure development. The market growth for PHEV segment will be minimal as focus of OEMs, customers and government is mainly on BEV buses and FCEV buses
Majority of the buses sold are sold to governmental organizations to run the public service bus in various cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen etc. with 100% of the buses used for public transport in Schanze being electric
The domestic market will account for 96% in 2020 of the manufactured buses mainly due to conversion of public transport fleet to electric.
Considering the extremely low temperatures in northern China, CRRC Electric’s buses and coaches are equipped with battery management systems to insulate power batteries from the extreme cold.
The bus market(ICE+ Electric) in China is estimated at $10 Billion per annum. The electric bus market in China was estimated at ~70,000 units in 2019 or ~14% of overall bus market in terms of volume, de-growing by 30% YOY. In 2020, the China electric bus market further declined to 61k units. The steep drop happened after generous subsidies by the Chinese government were withdrawn on 7th August 2019.
In 2019, majority of the electric buses in China are sold in a handful of cities like Dongguan, Beijing, Suzhou, Shenzhen, Wenzhou, Zhengzhou and Guangzhou. this is in a sharp contrast to 2018 sales where Guangzhou alone accounted for 15% of total sales.
Chinese bus manufacturers are also looking at South-East Asian, African and other low volume markets for exports, which will allow them to diversify their earnings and mitigate the risks associated with this evolving market.
BYD signed an agreement Cooperative Framework Agreement for Electric Bus Purchases with DB Regio Bus. According to this agreement, the bus manufacturer will deliver the first batch of 5 units BYD 12-meter electric buses to Esslingen, Baden-Württemberg, Germany. Equipped with highly integrated controllers and 422 kWh batteries, the 12-meter BYD electric bus achieves even higher safety standards and higher energy efficiency.
China bus market has 25 players in total, accounting for 0.5 Million units per annum but only 12 players are active in electric bus segment.
It is observed that the competition among electric bus manufacturers further intensified in 2020. Yutong occupied first place in the market despite its market share dropping by ~9% to 26%. BYD ranked 2nd with its market share increasing significantly. CRRC Electric completed the top-3 in the sector.
The factors that determine a greater presence in the market include battery supply chain, capacity to manufacture and price point to compete with conventional buses
In electric bus segment, the cumulative sales of the top ten new energy bus companies in 2020 was 84.5% of the industry’s total sales. Yutong, Zhong tong, CRRC and BYD had a cumulative market share of 57% in 2020.
Most of the domestic players are looking for export opportunities outside China. For example, BYD has less than 7% share of the domestic electric bus market but is the #1 player in India electric bus market (India is world`s third biggest bus market) and is actively expanding in Europe and US.
CATL supplies XX% of the battery capacity deployed in buses followed by BYD with XX% and EVE at X%. BYD’s supplies come from their own buses while CATL supplies to XX out of the top 10 bus manufacturers.
India electric bus market has a requirement of ~5,500 electric buses between 2020-2024, to be fulfilled by various vendors but BYD has already bagged more than 35% of them.
In January 2021, BYD successfully secured a deal of 1,002 units of electric buses from Bogota, Columbia. BYD will cooperate with Super polo and Bus scar, two local bus makers in Columbia to produce the bodies of all 1,002 units.
By the end of 2020, 455 units BYD electric buses had been put into service in San Diego Chile. Apart from Columbia and Chile, BYD has already established a solid presence in Ecuador, Brazil, Barbados, Panama, Costa Rica, Uruguay and Argentina.
