ELECTRIC VEHICLE FAST CHARGER MARKET
- As of Oct 2020, there are ~230,000 DC fast chargers installed globally. The number of ultra-fast chargers, which can charge at >350kW are limited to <2,000 or 1% of installed base
- DC Fast Charging manufacturers will look to manufacture cheaper 50 kW charger due to higher volume or tap into the 175 kW charger due to higher margin
- The four major criteria for vendor selection by charging operators are pricing, past safety and consumer experience record, local manufacturing and range of products on offer.
- Between 2017-2019, there have been numerous instances of minor mishaps due to a faulty cable/ overheating/charging at 50% of peak rating and thus operators are now extremely circumspect in selecting new vendors
- In China, Beijing, Shanghai,Tianjin,Anhui,Guangdong,Hubei,Hebei,Jiangsu,Shandong and Zhejiang account for 75% of DC fast chargers installed in the country. State Grid corporation of China has the biggest DC fast charging network in the Chinese market
- In Europe, there are 30+ DC fast charging networks and Norway, France, Germany, UK and Netherlands account for ~60-62% of installed DC fast chargers. Central Europe and Scandinavian countries lead in fast chargers deployed. There are more than 13,000 DC Fast Chargers in Europe
- Most of the vehicles launched in 2020 and upcoming in 2021 and 2022 such as the BMW iX3, Mercedes Benz EQC, Jaguar I-pace have more than 75 kWh battery and are capable to handle the high charging speeds in 100-200kW range.
- In US, As of Oct 2020, ~16,440 chargers are installed at 4,163 locations. About 7% of DC fast chargers are installed at Walmart, 5% at various malls, 4% at various hotels,3% at Nissan and BMW dealerships, 1% at Wholefoods market.Tesla has ~55% share of installed DC fast chargers and it will remain the leading player till 2025
Governments around the world are considering transportation electrification as an important step toward air quality, climate, and energy independence goals.
In order to achieve these goals, governments have invested substantial funding to incentivise electric vehicle sales and the associated charging infrastructure. DC fast chargers have the potential to solve the inherent range anxiety associated with EVs. Therefore, they are being looked upon as the ultimate growth accelerator for EV ownership.
EV promotional policy is the most important factor for Electric vehicle fast charger market. The importance of this factor can be judged by the fact that, in US, states which follow California ZEV mandate, represent 35% of total EV population.
In china, the mandatory sales quota for EVs had put the market in overdrive mode for past 3 years, but subsidy withdrawal in Aug 2019 led to a contraction in overall 2019 volumes.
Varying charging standards and low EV PARC are the most important challenge to Electric vehicle fast charger market. Despite all the improvements in electric vehicle technologies, charging infrastructure still suffers from inconsistent data availability and a lack of consistent standards in most countries.
For DC fast charging, connector types vary by OEMs as well as region. The Japanese OEMs prefer CHAdeMO fast charging standard whereas American and European OEMs prefer Combined Charging System (CCS), China has created its own GB/T standard for domestic DC fast charging networks.
POTENTIAL BUSINESS MODEL(S) FOR DC FAST CHARGING STATIONS
As we discussed earlier that most of the charging infrastructure initiatives are driven by government initiatives, what is in it for EV charger manufacturers and network providers? We believe, as the market starts growing from consumer demand and begins to reach mainstream, there is a strong potential for a complete transition into a commercially sustainable business.
We have listed down three business cases below
1.Charge fees for electricity usage– Now, this is the easiest of the three. You source electricity in bulk from energy and utilities companies in bulk and charge a mark-up on your services. The pricing could vary as per location, timing and number of users.
2.Advertising- Since, all the charging outlets will have a digital user interface, location-based advertising could bring in substantial revenues. For example, we learnt from our Bike sharing report that the biggest bike sharing operator in US, Citi Bike generates ~10-15% of its revenue from ads.
3.Installing chargers at supermarkets and stores- About 25-30% of urban traffic is a result of people not able to find a parking spot. If supermarkets and stores could provide charging points, it will not only increase their retail sales but also an additional revenue source. The big stores like Walmart and Target have already started making a move in this direction. In June 2019, Walmart completed installation of 350kW charging points in 100 stores across 34 US states initially announced in April 2018.Target plans to have more than 100 charging sites in 20 US states by 2020.
INITIATIVES TAKEN BY AUTO OEMS
There is a clear co-relation between EV sales and charging infrastructure in every part of the world. And, the stakeholders most likely affected by this co-relation are the car manufacturers themselves. Furthermore, investment by OEMs also bolsters consumer trust in this new technology. Taking cognizance of this fact, Ford, BMW, Daimler, and Volkswagen Group are collaborating to construct a network of ultrafast charging stations across EU.
In Oct 2020, Electrify America announced an agreement with Volkswagen of America to provide owners of the 2021 VW ID.4 electric SUV with three years of unlimited charging sessions on its network at no additional cost to the vehicle’s purchase price.
In Sep`18, Audi launched a new ‘e-tron Charging Service’ to enable access to 70k+ charging points by 220 providers with one card in Europe.
VW`s Electrify America is currently working on expanding its EV charging station footprint in various countries across the world.
In China, Xpeng Motors announced in April 2018 that it will build more than 1,000 super charging (300kW) station. Schemes like these will boost interoperability and consumer confidence in EVs, ultimately driving the EV fast charger market. By the end of October 2020, 78 supercharging stations were in operation in 19 cities nationwide.
Tesla is the driver for EVs in USA and Tesla’s superchargers account for more than 50% of the fast chargers in USA. Their goal is to deliver an efficient charging system across the country. The upcoming Texas factory means there will be increased manufacturing mainly to supply to USA. To make EVs lucrative, Tesla will focus on increasing its supercharger network across the country.
COVID IMPACT ON EV DC FAST CHARGER MARKET
In May-June 2020, Germany and France governments have announced generous incentives for buying EVs only. In France, the incentives bring down the cost of a $ 40,000 EV to as much as $ 26,285 (when trading in older ICE cars)
As a result, Europe already sold more plugged in vehicles in the first 9 months of 2020 compared to entire 2019 and is the only region with increased EV sales compared to 2019
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
For EVs to become mainstream, the recharging times have to be at par with gas vehicles and that can only happen if fast chargers are in use everywhere. In US, the DOE (Department of Energy) wants to lower charging times to less than 15 minutes by 2028. It wants to increase the charging output to 400kW at most of the public charging stations.
As of Oct, `20, Tesla has one of the biggest fast charging networks of ~20,000 super chargers at 2,000+ stations.
The cost to set up Electric vehicle charging infrastructure has declined substantially over the past 5 years due to growth in volumes. As of 2018, the installation of Level 2 charger costs approximately $6-10K USD whereas fast chargers cost almost 7-8 times.About 20,000 ChadeMO DC fast chargers are in use globally and it will continue to grow at double digits till 2025.
The EV DC fast charger market will grow to XX units and $YY Million per annum by 2025.
A robust public private partnership is required to grow EV fast charger market and make it commercially viable. Competition among charging providers and charger manufacturers will facilitate growth of the early infrastructure and further new product development.
Oil companies are feeling the heat of EV market growth and in order to make themselves “future proof”, they have started making inroads in EV charging market. Oil companies like British Petroleum and Shell have made some big-ticket investments and acquisitions.
Australian fast charger manufacturer Tritium is a preferred choice for car manufacturers, charging network companies and government bodies alike as it has won many contracts in Europe, US and even India.
There is a lot happening among EV fast charger industry stakeholders right now.
- NEC Corporation
- Tritium Pty Ltd
- Signet EV
- Schneider Electric
- Siemens AG
- Efacec Electric Mobility
- GS Yuasa Corporation
- Nichicon Corporation
- Tesla Motors, Inc.
DC FAST CHARGING NETWORK OPERATORS
|Sl no||Fast Charging netwrok||Country/Region|
|13||BP Charge Master- Polar Network||UK|
|19||China Southern Power Grid||China|
|24||Tata Autocomp- Tata Motors||India|
THIS REPORT WILL ANSWER FOLLOWING QUESTIONS
- What is the average cost per DC fast charger right now and how will it change in next 5-6 years? Average cost to setup a fast charging station in US, Europe and China?
- How many Electric Vehicle fast chargers are manufactured per annum globally? Who are the sub-component suppliers in different regions?
- What is happening in overall public charging infrastructure, globally? What are the bottlenecks in EV home charging for urban dwellers?
- Role of car manufacturers in growth of Electric Vehicle fast charger market?
- DC fast charging capability of upcoming EVs
- What will be the average charging power of fast charger station during 2019-2025 in top 10 EV markets globally?
- Which charging standard CHAdeMo/CCS will have bigger market acceptance and why?
- Cost breakup of a DC fast charger and key vendor selection criteria
- Where are the Electric Vehicle fast chargers manufactured? What is the average margin per equipment?
- Average fast charging fees for consumers in top 10 EV markets globally
- Market share of Electric Vehicle fast charger manufacturers and their upcoming products
- The most important planned fast charging sites in next 2 years
- The importance of touch screen as a user interface on a fast charger as compared to TFT display with haptic buttons
- Details on network of major fast charging providers like EVgo, Chargemaster etc, their membership and pricing plans
- How are the oil majors, utility companies, super market store chains and big real estate companies eying Electric Vehicle fast charger market as next big opportunity?
|4||Insights from Industry stakeholders||11|
|5||Key criteria for fast charger vendor selection||12-13|
|6||DC Fast charger manufacturing in US, Europe and China||14-15|
|7||Breakdown of new EV concept vehicles by powertrain||16-17|
|8||Upcoming EV platforms and their fast charging capability||18-19|
|9||Disruptive innovations in DC fast charger market||20-21|
|10||Average fast charging fees for consumers in top 10 EV markets globally||22-23|
|11||Upcoming planned fast charging sites in next 2 years in major coties||24-25|
|12||Market Size ,Dynamics and Forecast By Sub-Components||26-39|
|13||Market Size ,Dynamics and Forecast By Geography||41-60|
|14||Market Size ,Dynamics and Forecast By Power output||62-73|
|17||Unmet needs and Market Opportunity for suppliers||90|