Global E-Axle Market 2019-2025

October 1, 2019
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KEY FINDINGS

 

  1. On global scale,~65%-72% of traction motors produced are in-sourced and in future, when EV volumes further increase, we expect the share to go even higher.But, the e-axle sourcing pattern will be completely opposite
  2. Vehicles with high sticker price, typically in mid size and premium segment can absorb the cost of e-axle and still return a profit
  3. China, despite accounting for 50% of EV sales in 2018, only ~1% vehicles were fitted with E-axle, but by 2020-21, this will change and GAC, Byton, Volvo and Polestar will lead the charge by fitting multiple models with E-axle
  4. Our next range of premium BEVs with >400km range will have e-axles instead of traction motors. We are looking at many options right now and it will take another 12-18 months to finalize the right e-axle, suitable for 3 nameplates” –Lead -HEV/EV PT Traction Motor, a leading Chinese OEM, China

 

INTRODUCTION

An e-axle combines  electric motor, power inverter, transmission and differential  in a single package. It allows neat packaging and simplified integration in even older vehicle platforms. GKN produced world`s first mass production two speed e-axle in 2014, for BMW i8. The development came at a time when most of the EV transmission in use was single speed.

 

MARKET DYNAMICS

The initial adoption of E-axles, started as a result of growth in all wheel drive (AWD), where some premium vehicle manufacturers replaced mechanical AWD with e-AWD. The move was aimed at providing AWD with torque vectoring and reduced CO2 emission. Going forward, we believe this global trend of vehicle electrification will be a major growth driver for E-axle market.

 

The supply chain of EV manufacturing is completely different than gas powered cars. Also, the supply chain of EVs is still evolving whereas that of gas powered cars is matured and well established. This marked difference in production of EVs has led many OEMs create a separate brand for their “green vehicle” segment.

 

Owing to complexity in EV manufacturing, OEMs are designing modular and scalable electric vehicle architecture. The advantage being, they could source just one e-axle from a supplier rather than sourcing individual power-train components from multiple suppliers. The market trend is clearly towards more compact, power dense and efficient E-axles.

 

MARKET SEGMENTATION

 

how is the automotive e-axle market segmented

 

MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST

COMMERCIAL VEHICLE SEGMENT

In the commercial vehicle segment, Nikola will generate bulk of the demand for CV e-axle in US as it has 9,000+ pre-orders for its long haul, fuel cell electric truck by 2025.Also, we see stronger demand from LCV segment. As city planning authorities tighten the noose on urban CO2 emissions, the LCVs used for last mile distribution will be electrified first. Dana is already working with Workhorse to create last mile delivery EV platform and supplying Dongfeng in China with e-axles. We expect many more collaborations in coming years.

 

Sl noOEMVehicle typeMass production timelineE-Axle Remarks
1BYDFuel Cell Electric bus2022-2025No
2Thomas BuiltElectric School bus2021No
3PeterbiltClass 8 Electric truck2021Yes
4Daimler TrucksElectric Linehaul truck2021No
5Blue Bird and Lion BusesElectric transit bus2019No
6Nikola MotorsClass 8 Electric truck2021Yes

 

PASSENGER VEHICLE SEGMENT

China accounts for 50% of global EV sales, almost all domestic manufacturers have declared plans to setup a separate EV brand, but very few of them have fitted their vehicles with an e-axle.During Jan-Sep 2019, EV sales growth has slowed down to just ~30% YOY.BEVs now make up for 82% of total EV sales as compared to 74% in 2018.

 

The EV market in China is heavily skewed towards  low powered compacts using single speed transmission. The entry level cars(A00 and A0 segment) made up for just 14% share of overall new car sales in 2018 but in EV segment, the two segments accounted for 35% of total sales. Read our EV transmission report to know more about it.

 

In passenger vehicle segment, Europe is leading and also driving global market growth for E-axles.BMW is the market leader in EV(BEV+ PHEV)s in Europe, it had 18% share of ~390,000 EVs sold in Europe in 2018 and the sales have grown by 22% in H1-2019. The E-axle equipped 2 Series Active Tourer sales have grown by more than 40% in Jan-Sep 2019.Going forward, the sales of BMW and Mini PHEVs will have a significant impact on E-axle volumes in Europe

 

Audi is trying to catch-up fast and announced in Feb 2019 that it will start offering PHEV variants of its high-end models like A6,A7, A8 and Q5.But, it is more likely to use dedicated hybrid transmission than E-axle.

 

The onset of WLTP in Europe in Sep`18 has provided a much needed boost to EV manufacturing in the region and  driven PHEV adoption.

 

In US, where SUVs and Pickups make up for  ~71% of annual new car sales, ~25-28%of those vehicles are fitted with mechanical 4WD/AWD. As the average transaction prices of SUVs and pickups now exceed $45,000, we expect few of them to be powered by E-axle in their next refresh/update.  

 

Tesla had 53% market share of electrified vehicles in US, and 19% share of global BEVs in H1-2019, but it does not have e-axle in any of them.It uses its in-house developed induction/PMSRM motors for propulsion.Tesla Model 3 is the best-selling passenger car globally, in terms of revenue, generating ~$8 Billion in US alone.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

 

SupplierWeight(Kg)Max Power output(kW)Start of ProductionPassenger vehiclesCommercial vehicle
Nidec831502019YesNo
Dana3051302018NoYes
GKN54652019YesNo
Continental 751502018YesNo
Bosch30-18050-3002019YesYes
Schaeffler751502017YesNo
ZF1131502018YesNo

 

Low scale of EVs has not allowed suppliers to achieve economies of scale. Further, the OEM margins on BEVs and PHEVs are already low, as the market is driven more by regulation than consumer demand.

 

There are about 15 Tier-1 suppliers active in E-axle market. GKN is the undisputed market leader in this space but its leadership is likely to be challenged in coming years. Its products have featured on more than 15 EV models across the globe. In addition, it has a very diverse portfolio including single-speed, co-axial and multi-speed e-axles which allows it to cater to diverse requirements and gives it an edge over others.

 

To learn more about the e-axle market from a supplier point of view. Read our article    E-axle market, an unmissable opportunity for auto suppliers

 

Bosch has a more versatile and scalable product, which can cater to passenger as well as commercial vehicles but its market reach has been limited so far. There are also some new entrants like Sona Group, Hyllion and AxleTech(now acquired by Meritor).

 

The biggest challenge for E-axle suppliers is to fight of competition from hybrid transmissions in PHEVs and single speed(very cost effective) transmission in BEVs. The cost factor is secondary because conversion of an ICE only to PHEV costs about $4,000 including batteries.

 

 

 

COMPANIES PROFILED
  1. Robert Bosch GmbH
  2. GKN Driveline
  3. Linamar Corporation
  4. AVL List GmbH
  5. AxleTech
  6. ZF Friedrichshafen
  7. Dana Incorporated
  8. Continental AG
  9. Nidec Corporation
  10. Hyllion
  11. Schaeffler Group
  12. Magna International
  13. American Axle Manufacturing
  14. The Sona Group

 

THIS REPORT WILL ANSWER FOLLOWING QUESTIONS
  1. The market size (volume-Units and value-$M) of global E-axle Market in 2019-2025 and every year in between?
  2. Market size and forecast segmented by application, geography, power output and EV type
  3. Market dynamics(trends, risks and opportunities), by region
  4. Present and forecasted sub-components margin
  5. Market share of suppliers in BEV and PHEV segment respectively
  6. About new companies active in this market
  7. Cost breakup of E-axle
  8. Latest trends in E-axle market
  9. Disruptive innovations in E-axle market
  10. Breakdown of new Electric concept vehicles by powertrain
  11. Future e-axle evolution roadmap
  12. E-Axle manufacturing in US, Europe and China
  13. OEM-supplier relationship in E-axle market
  14. 5 key predictions for next 5 years
  15. Unmet needs and opportunity for new suppliers
1Market Segmentation3
2Executive Summary5-6
3Introduction7-10
4Insights from Industry stakeholders11
5Key criteria for E-axle adoption by OEMs12-13
6E-Axle manufacturing in US, Europe and China14-15
7Breakdown of new EV concept vehicles by powertrain16-17
8Upcoming EV platforms utilizing E-axle18-19
9Disruptive innovations in E-axle market20-21
10About new companies in E-axle market22-23
11Market Size ,Dynamics and Forecast By Vehicle type29-38
12Market Size ,Dynamics and Forecast By Vehicle type29-38
13Market Size ,Dynamics and Forecast By EV type39-48
14Market Size ,Dynamics and Forecast By Geography49-65
15Market Size ,Dynamics and Forecast By Power output66-78
16Competitive Landscape79-82
17OEM-supplier relationship in e-axle market27-28
18Company Profiles80-95
19Unmet needs and Market Opportunity for suppliers96-97
20Conclusion98-99
215 Key predictions100
22Appendix101
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