INTRODUCTION

Transmission has always been an important part of every vehicle running on our roads today. The fuel economy, acceleration, driving comfort and pleasure are critical parameters of a vehicle buyer’s purchasing decision and very closely related with the choice of transmission on offer.

In EVs, the role of transmission in a buyer`s purchasing decision will not be as relevant as it is in a gas-powered vehicle. The reason being, in a gas-powered vehicle which operates between 1,000-7,000 RPM, transmission acts as an intermediary between engine and wheels. It  allows engine RPM reduction by many factors to be transmitted in a smooth manner to the wheels. But, in case of EVs, 100% of rated torque is available at 0 RPM and the motor has a flat torque curve. A single or 2 speed transmission does the job as compared 6,7,8 or now even 10 speed automatics.

As EV sales crossed 2M units in 2018, they still make up for just ~2% of global passenger car sales, but in a year where global passenger car sales at ~81M units, contracted by 0.7%(YoY), the EV sales grew by 75%(YOY). This is the reason why the EV transmission market is a greatly debated topic of discussion in the automotive transmission industry today.

MARKET DYNAMICS

The single-multi speed EV transmission will grow in-line with the growth in low and medium range EVs, as cost is a major factor there. But, in the mid-size and premium vehicle category, we expect E-axles (motor+ transmission+ power electronics) to replace 1-2 speed transmission, as more PHEVs are launched in coming years.

We believe, SUVs, which accounted for 35% of global passenger vehicle sales in 2018 and are the only growing vehicle segment will have a major role in the growth of EV market globally. As E-AWD penetration grows in SUVs , e-axle stands to gain from it significantly and is the biggest challenge to the EV transmission market. Read our E-axle report to know more about it.

MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST

BEVs (Battery electric vehicle) accounted for 63% of total EV sales in 2018 and in China which accounts for 50% of global EV market, the BEVs accounted for 76% of total EV sales. About 35% of EVs sold in China were compact hatchbacks powered by 25-40kWh battery, 80-120 hp motor and single speed transmission. Making it the biggest EV transmission market.

In US, Tesla accounted for 53% (191k units) of all EVs sold and all of them had single-speed transmission, making it the second biggest market

In Europe, EV sales are driven by PHEVs and the best-sellers including Mitsubishi Outlander, BMW 225 Series Active Tourer and Mini Countryman, all have e-axles instead of individual transmission.

The EV transmission market was estimated at XX Million units in 2019 and is expected to grow to YY Million units by 2025, growing at –% CAGR.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

There are 10+ auto suppliers active in the EV transmission market and we have profiled the top 11. BorgWarner, GKN, Jatco are among the leading players but others profiled in the report are expanding aggressively to cater to multiple EV platforms and expand their share.

The powertrain (motor + transmission) of a BEV doesn`t cost more than 5-7% of total cost of the vehicle, which is very less when compared to a traditional gas-powered vehicle, where the powertrain cost is 18-20%of the vehicle cost. Batteries and power electronics on the other hand account for 25-30% of the cost of the vehicle.This is the reason why many established auto component suppliers are adopting different strategies to remain profitable in the growing EV market.

For example,suppliers like Bosch and Continental, which are ranked #1 and #4 among the biggest global auto component suppliers are not present in the EV transmission market as yet and they are extensively banking on e-axles to grow in the EV driveline market.

COMPANY PROFILES

1. Schaeffler AG
2. Eaton Corporation
3. Jatco Ltd
4. GKN Driveline
5. ZF Friedrichshafen AG
6. Aisin Seiki Co., Ltd
7. Allison Transmission
8. Magna International Europe AG
9. BorgWarner Inc.
10. Oerlikon Graziano
11. Dana Incorporated

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THIS REPORT?

1. To understand the Market size (Volume and Value),growth potential of this market in every region and vehicle segment
2. Which vehicle platforms will drive maximum market volume and value?
3. Which EV platforms are most profitable?
4. How will e-axles impact the sales volume of stand-alone single/multi-speed transmission?
5. The on-going developments in next generation EV transmission.
6. Market share of existing EV transmission suppliers and their alignment with OEMs
7. To understand future growth strategy of auto suppliers in the EV transmission market
8. The impact of micro-mobility and ride-hailing on EV sales

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