GLOBAL ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSMISISON MARKET
- As of June’21, more than 6 Electric Vehicle transmission products from global tier-1 suppliers are in the validation phase
- As of June`21, there are 322 BEV models available for sale in China. In the BEV segment, only 19 models belong to foreign manufactures and the remaining 303 belong to domestic manufacturers, more than 98% of them have 1-speed transmission
- US had the highest, (48%) penetration of dual motor EVs i.e. with 2 EV transmission per vehicle
- In Europe, the top 3 best-selling EVs in 2020 i.e Renault Zoe(~100,000 units), Tesla Model 3 (~87,000 units) and VW ID3 (24,400 units) had in-house manufactured motors coupled to a single-speed transmission
- The current trend supports in house transmission manufacturing over procuring from suppliers
- The growth will be mainly from BEVs and HEVs growth globally
- E-axles will be the target for new suppliers as in-house transmission will be utilized by OEMs for BEVs
- Direct Hybrid Transmission will be the key transmission for PHEVs over E-axle as OEMs will have ease in setting up DHT over E-Axle
- Toyota who holds the lead for market share for HEVs globally is focusing on improving their DHT over building new BEVs unlike other Japanese OEMs for the global market
Transmission has always been an important part of every vehicle running on our roads today. Fuel economy, acceleration, driving comfort and pleasure are critical parameters of a vehicle buyer’s purchasing decision and very closely related to the choice of transmission on offer.
In EVs, the role of transmission in a buyer’s purchasing decision will not be as relevant as it is in a gas-powered vehicle. The reason being, in a gas-powered vehicle that operates between 1,000-7,000 RPM, transmission acts as an intermediary between engine and wheels.
It allows engine RPM reduction by many factors to be transmitted in a smooth manner to the wheels. But, in the case of EVs, 100% of rated torque is available at 0 RPM and the motor has a flat torque curve. A single or 2-speed transmission does the job as compared to 6,7,8 or now even 10-speed automatics.
As EV sales crossed 3M units in 2020, they still make up for just ~6% of global passenger car sales, but in a year where global passenger car sales at ~56M units, contracted by 17%(YoY), the EV sales grew by 43%(YOY). This is the reason why the Electric Vehicle transmission market is a greatly debated topic of discussion in the automotive transmission industry today.
FINAL DRIVE RATIO OF POPULAR BEVs WITH 1-SPEED TRANSMISSION
|Tesla||Model S||9.73:1(1st Motor), 9.34:1(2nd Motor)|
|Jaguar||I-pace||9.04:1(Both 1st and 2nd Motor)|
|Audi||E-Tron||9.205:1(Both 1st and 2nd Motor)|
ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSMISSION MARKET DYNAMICS
The single-multi speed EV transmission will grow in line with the growth in low and medium-range EVs, as the cost is a major factor there. But, in the mid-size and premium vehicle category, we expect E-axles (motor+ transmission+ power electronics) to replace 1-2 speed transmission, as more PHEVs are launched in coming years.
The target market in Europe will be both sedans and SUVs/Crossovers. In USA the main market will shift from passenger cars to trucks, SUVs and crossovers as OEMs are targeting this market with high powered vehicles. China will have a mix of all vehicle types as the maturity of EVs in that market is higher than other regions. Rest of the world will look out for long range vehicles and decreased pricing.
Transmission in fully electric vehicles is much simpler compared to an ICE vehicle but will hold a larger share of the overall price. Since efficiency of the overall vehicle is the main concern right now, motor efficiency will be one of the key elements as well as decreasing various transmission losses for the vehicle.
Since overall efficiency increase will be an addition of all improvements, OEMs are looking into all possibilities to increase efficiency across the spectrum of technology including software.
Read our E-axle report to know more about it.
ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSMISSION MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
BEVs (Battery electric vehicle) accounted for 71% of total EV sales in 2018 ,76% in 2019 and 78% in 2020, and in China which accounts for 40% of global EV market, the BEVs accounted for 81% of total EV sales. About 39% of EVs sold in China were compact hatchbacks powered by 25-40kWh battery, 80-120 hp motor and single speed transmission. Making it the biggest EV transmission market.
In the US, Tesla accounted for 70% (328k units) of all EVs sold in 2020, all of them had single-speed transmission, making it the third biggest market. The EV transmission market in the US will have the highest average price as power output in the vehicles sold in the USA is much higher. There is also high penetration of E-axle in Europe.
In Europe, EV sales were driven by PHEVs in 2018 and the best-sellers including Mitsubishi Outlander, BMW 225 Series Active Tourer and Mini Countryman, all had e-axles instead of individual transmission. But in 2019 and 2020, BEVs accounted for ~65% and 55% share of EVs sold respectively, therefore creating more demand for single-speed EV transmission.
Across the globe, OEMs are launching multiple motor vehicles to increase the overall performance aspect of the vehicle. Tesla which had 13% of the plugged in market share will launch the Semi, Cybertruck as well as new Roadster. Volkswagen Group launched I.D 3 and I.D 4 across the globe and 20 new models based on the MEB platform will hit the market over the next 3 years. The Detroit Top 3 will focus on SUVs and Trucks for the American market and SUVs for the Chinese market as they will target high performance to make up for the lost market share in volumes.
The Electric Vehicle transmission market was estimated at 3.6 Million units in 2020 and is expected to grow to 18 Million units by 2026, growing at 24% CAGR.
There are 10+ auto suppliers active in the electric vehicle transmission market and we have profiled the top 11. BorgWarner, GKN, Jatco are among the leading players but others profiled in the report are expanding aggressively to cater to multiple EV platforms and expand their share.
The powertrain (motor + transmission) of a BEV doesn’t cost more than 5-7% of total cost of the vehicle, compared to a traditional gas-powered vehicle, where powertrain cost is 18-20% of the vehicle cost.
Batteries and power electronics on the other hand account for 25-30% of the cost of the vehicle. This is the reason why many established auto component suppliers are adopting different strategies to remain profitable in the growing EV market. For example, suppliers like Bosch and Continental, among the biggest global auto component suppliers, are not present in the electric vehicle transmission market as yet. They are extensively banking on e-axles to grow in the EV driveline market.
Suppliers like BorgWarner and ZF are essentially targeting the hybrid vehicle segment, where they have built an extensive electrified driveline portfolio and can cater to most of the mid and high-segment vehicles.
Suppliers such as Eaton and Alisson are focusing on commercial vehicles with various products for them including e-Axles, multi-speed transmission and single-speed transmission for electric buses, fleets and trucks.
In housing of transmission is the common trend across OEMs and will be the biggest threat to transmission suppliers.
- Schaeffler AG
- Eaton Corporation
- Jatco Ltd
- GKN Driveline
- ZF Friedrichshafen AG
- Aisin Seiki Co., Ltd
- Allison Transmission
- Magna International Europe AG
- BorgWarner Inc.
- Oerlikon Graziano
- Dana Incorporated
THIS REPORT WILL ANSWER FOLLOWING QUESTIONS?
- What will be the electric vehicle transmission market size (Volume and Value),growth potential of this market in every region and vehicle segment?
- Global production breakup of EV transmission,by suppliers and their OEM relationship
- The associated risks to electric vehicle transmission market with growing volume of 48V Mild-hybrid system in Europe
- Latest trends in Electric Vehicle transmission,by every market segment
- Which vehicle platforms will drive maximum market volume and value?
- Which EV platforms are most profitable?
- How will e-axles impact the sales volume of stand-alone single/multi-speed transmission?
- The on-going developments in next generation EV transmission
- About EV transmission manufacturing in US, China and Europe
- Average B-2-B cost of EV transmission in top 5 EV markets
- In-house manufacturing vs outsourced transmission
- Market share of existing EV transmission suppliers and their alignment with OEMs
- Potential new entrants in Electric Vehicle transmission market
- To understand future growth strategy of auto suppliers in the Electric Vehicle transmission market
- The impact of micro-mobility and ride-hailing on EV sales