GLOBAL ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSMISISON MARKET

KEY FINDINGS

1. As of Mar’21, more than 6 Electric Vehicle transmission products from global tier-1 suppliers are in validation phase
2. As of Mar’21, there are 322 BEV models available for sale in China. In BEV segment, only 19 models belong to foreign manufactures and remaining 303 belong to domestic manufacturers, more than 98% of them have 1 speed transmission
3. US had the highest, (32%) penetration of dual motor EVs i.e. with 2 EV transmission per vehicle
4. In Europe, the top 3 best-selling EVs in 2020 i.e Renault Zoe(~100,000 units), Tesla Model 3 (~87,000 units) and VW id3 (24,400 units)  had in-house manufactured motors coupled to a single speed transmission

INTRODUCTION

Transmission has always been an important part of every vehicle running on our roads today. Fuel economy, acceleration, driving comfort and pleasure are critical parameters of a vehicle buyer’s purchasing decision and very closely related with the choice of transmission on offer.

In EVs, the role of transmission in a buyer`s purchasing decision will not be as relevant as it is in a gas-powered vehicle. The reason being, in a gas-powered vehicle which operates between 1,000-7,000 RPM, transmission acts as an intermediary between engine and wheels. It allows engine RPM reduction by many factors to be transmitted in a smooth manner to the wheels. But, in case of EVs, 100% of rated torque is available at 0 RPM and the motor has a flat torque curve. A single or 2 speed transmission does the job as compared 6,7,8 or now even 10 speed automatics.

As EV sales crossed 3M units in 2020, they still make up for just ~2% of global passenger car sales, but in a year where global passenger car sales at ~78M units, contracted by 17%(YoY), the EV sales grew by 39%(YOY). This is the reason why the Electric Vehicle transmission market is a greatly debated topic of discussion in the automotive transmission industry today.

FINAL DRIVE RATIO OF POPULAR BEVs WITH 1-SPEED TRANSMISSION

ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSMISISON MARKET DYNAMICS

The single-multi speed EV transmission will grow in-line with the growth in low and medium range EVs, as cost is a major factor there. But, in the mid-size and premium vehicle category, we expect E-axles (motor+ transmission+ power electronics) to replace 1-2 speed transmission, as more PHEVs are launched in coming years.

We believe, SUVs, which accounted for 35% of global passenger vehicle sales in 2020 and are a growing vehicle segment will have a major role in the growth of EV market globally. As, E-AWD penetration grows in SUVs, e-axle stands to gain from it significantly and is the biggest challenge to the EV transmission market. Read our E-axle report to know more about it.

ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSMISISON MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST

BEVs (Battery electric vehicle) accounted for 71% of total EV sales in 2018 ,76% in 2019 and 78% in 2020, and in China which accounts for 40% of global EV market, the BEVs accounted for 81% of total EV sales. About 39% of EVs sold in China were compact hatchbacks powered by 25-40kWh battery, 80-120 hp motor and single speed transmission. Making it the biggest EV transmission market.

In US, Tesla accounted for 70% (328k units) of all EVs sold in 2020 , all of them had single-speed transmission, making it the third biggest market. The EV transmission market in US will be at least 13% bigger than Europe market by 2025 even though the EV volume of Europe will be 30% higher than US. All because of high penetration of E-axle in Europe.

In Europe, EV sales were driven by PHEVs in 2018 and the best-sellers including Mitsubishi Outlander, BMW 225 Series Active Tourer and Mini Countryman, all had e-axles instead of individual transmission. But in 2019 and 2020 , BEVs accounted for ~65% and 55% share of EVs sold respectively, therefore creating more demand for single speed EV transmission.

Fiat, the brand with 6% market share of new car sales in Europe and the leader in small cars is very late in the electrified scene, partly because it has relied on CNG & LPG for past 8-9 years. It plans to build the e-500 in Europe, with 500X and 500L getting a Mild hybrid solution.

The Electric Vehicle transmission market was estimated at 3.2 Million units in 2020 and is expected to grow to 10.2 Million units by 2025, growing at 25% CAGR.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

There are 10+ auto suppliers active in the electric vehicle transmission market and we have profiled the top 11. BorgWarner, GKN, Jatco are among the leading players but others profiled in the report are expanding aggressively to cater to multiple EV platforms and expand their share.

The powertrain (motor + transmission) of a BEV doesn`t cost more than 5-7% of total cost of the vehicle, compared to a traditional gas-powered vehicle, where  powertrain cost is 18-20% of the vehicle cost. Batteries and power electronics on the other hand account for 25-30% of the cost of the vehicle. This is the reason why many established auto component suppliers are adopting different strategies to remain profitable in the growing EV market. For example, suppliers like Bosch and Continental, among the biggest global auto component suppliers are not present in the electric vehicle transmission market as yet. They are extensively banking on e-axles to grow in the EV driveline market.

Suppliers like BorgWarner and ZF are essentially targeting hybrid vehicle segment, where they have built extensive electrified driveline portfolio and can cater to most of the mid and high segment vehicles.

COMPANY PROFILES

1. Schaeffler AG
2. Eaton Corporation
3. Jatco Ltd
4. GKN Driveline
5. ZF Friedrichshafen AG
6. Aisin Seiki Co., Ltd
7. Allison Transmission
8. Magna International Europe AG
9. BorgWarner Inc.
10. Oerlikon Graziano
11. Dana Incorporated

THIS REPORT WILL ANSWER FOLLOWING QUESTIONS?

1. What will be the electric vehicle transmission market size (Volume and Value),growth potential of this market in every region and vehicle segment?
2. Global production breakup of EV transmission,by suppliers and their OEM relationship
3. The associated risks to electric vehicle transmission market with growing volume of 48V Mild-hybrid system in Europe
4. Latest trends in Electric Vehicle transmission,by every market segment
5. Which vehicle platforms will drive maximum market volume and value?
6. Which EV platforms are most profitable?
7. How will e-axles impact the sales volume of stand-alone single/multi-speed transmission?
8. The on-going developments in next generation EV transmission
9. About EV transmission manufacturing in US, China and Europe
10. Average B-2-B cost of EV transmission in top 5 EV markets
11. In-house manufacturing vs outsourced transmission
12. Market share of existing EV transmission suppliers and their alignment with OEMs
13. Potential new entrants in Electric Vehicle transmission market
14. To understand future growth strategy of auto suppliers in the Electric Vehicle transmission market
15. The impact of micro-mobility and ride-hailing on EV sales