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2024 Update Coming Soon Published- June 2019 Number of pages - 91
The battery EV segment is expected to dominate the electric vehicle transmission market, accounting for more than 90% of the market revenue by 2030. This is due to the increasing popularity of battery electric vehicles over other types of electric vehicles, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles.
The AT transmission system segment is expected to lead the electric vehicle transmission market, followed by the DCT and CVT segments. This is due to the advantages of AT transmission systems, such as smooth driving experience, improved performance, and better fuel efficiency.
The cars segment is expected to account for the largest market share, followed by the commercial vehicles segment. This is due to the increasing demand for electric cars and the growing popularity of commercial electric vehicles, such as electric buses and delivery vans.
In the first half of 2023, the global electric vehicle transmission market was valued at USD XX billion, up from USD XX billion in the same period of 2022. This represents a year-on-year growth of 50%.
In July 2023, Schaeffler AG announced that it had acquired Elmotec, a German company that develops and manufactures electric drives. The acquisition is expected to strengthen Schaeffler’s position in the electric vehicle transmission market.
Transmission has always been an important part of every vehicle running on our roads today. Fuel economy, acceleration, driving comfort and pleasure are critical parameters of a vehicle buyer’s purchasing decision and very closely related to the choice of transmission on offer.
In EVs, the role of transmission in a buyer’s purchasing decision will not be as relevant as it is in a gas-powered vehicle. The reason being, in a gas-powered vehicle that operates between 1,000-7,000 RPM, transmission acts as an intermediary between engine and wheels.
It allows engine RPM reduction by many factors to be transmitted in a smooth manner to the wheels. But, in the case of EVs, 100% of rated torque is available at 0 RPM and the motor has a flat torque curve. A single or 2-speed transmission does the job as compared to 6,7,8 or now even 10-speed automatics.
As EV sales crossed 3M units in 2020, they still make up for just ~6% of global passenger car sales, but in a year where global passenger car sales at ~56M units, contracted by 17%(YoY), the EV sales grew by 43%(YOY). This is the reason why the Electric Vehicle transmission market is a greatly debated topic of discussion in the automotive transmission industry today.
The single-multi speed EV transmission will grow in line with the growth in low and medium-range EVs, as the cost is a major factor there. But, in the mid-size and premium vehicle category, we expect E-axles (motor+ transmission+ power electronics) to replace 1-2 speed transmission, as more PHEVs are launched in coming years.
The target market in Europe will be both sedans and SUVs/Crossovers. In USA the main market will shift from passenger cars to trucks, SUVs and crossovers as OEMs are targeting this market with high powered vehicles. China will have a mix of all vehicle types as the maturity of EVs in that market is higher than other regions. Rest of the world will look out for long range vehicles and decreased pricing.
Transmission in fully electric vehicles is much simpler compared to an ICE vehicle but will hold a larger share of the overall price. Since efficiency of the overall vehicle is the main concern right now, motor efficiency will be one of the key elements as well as decreasing various transmission losses for the vehicle.
Since overall efficiency increase will be an addition of all improvements, OEMs are looking into all possibilities to increase efficiency across the spectrum of technology including software.
Honda announced critical next steps in the establishment of its EV Hub in Ohio, which will lead the company’s journey to a North American electrified future.
Marysville Auto Plant (MAP) MAP will begin preparing for EV manufacturing as early as January 2024 by merging its two current production lines, which make vehicles powered by internal combustion engines and hybrid-electric vehicle systems. Consolidating operations to a single line will allow MAP to begin constructing the infrastructure required for EV manufacture.
Read our E-axle report to know more about it.
BEVs accounted for 78% of global EV sales in 2023, and multi-speed transmissions are gaining popularity in the EV market. Single-speed transmissions remain the dominant transmission type, but multi-speed transmissions offer a number of advantages, such as improved efficiency, performance, and range.
2023 (forecast)
2030 (forecast)
E-mobility is becoming more popular. Electric vehicles are becoming more common, providing smooth and sustainable mobility. However, when it comes to specific criteria and applications, e-mobility is still a work in progress.
Whether it’s (light) duty trucks navigating steep roads, sports cars requiring high peak speeds, or a trailer or caravan that needs to be hauled, there’s something for everyone. A continuously variable transmission (CVT) may be the answer in this case.
BorgWarner’s Viper power module is a highly efficient SiC inverter that increases the range, driving performance, and safety of electric vehicles.
ZF Friedrichshafen’s 3-in-1 electric axle combines the electric motor, transmission, and power electronics in one system, making it more lightweight and efficient.
Schaeffler AG’s 800-volt power electronics and thermal management system increases the range of electric vehicles by improving the efficiency of the power electronics and cooling the system more effectively.
GKN Driveline’s dedicated hybrid transmissions for plug-in hybrid vehicles are more cost-effective and efficient than traditional hybrid transmissions.
Magna International’s eDrive is a modular electric vehicle transmission system that can be adapted to a wide range of electric vehicles.
Valeo’s DCT8 EV is an 8-speed dual-clutch transmission for electric vehicles that improves performance and efficiency.
Dana Holding Corporation’s e-Drive is a family of electric vehicle transmission systems that offer a variety of benefits, including improved performance, efficiency, and durability.
For use by franchised and independent workshops qualified to work on electrified vehicle (EV) powertrains, Castrol has introduced Castrol ON EV Transmission Fluids. The two new products, which are available in five-liter packs and come in D1 and D2 variants, are suitable for a variety of EVs and help to increase the range of EVs on a single charge.
The new product offers high levels of gear and bearing protection and is a fully synthetic fluid with high performance and efficiency for transmissions used with dry e-motors.
A larger family of cutting-edge Castrol ON EV fluids includes the Castrol ON EV Transmission Fluid. The selection of EV transmission fluids, EV thermal fluids, and EV greases aid in the widespread adoption of EVs by extending their range2, enabling faster charging3, and extending their useful lives4.
In order to produce new electric drive modules (EDMs) that will power future electric vehicles assembled in North America and achieve the target of 50% battery electric sales in the U.S. by 2030, Stellantis said today that it will invest a total of $155 million in three sites in Kokomo, Indiana.
The Kokomo-built EDM will be included into vehicles created on the STLA Large and STLA Frame platforms, which are expected to debut more than 25 battery electric vehicle (BEV) models in the United States between now and 2030.
The electric motor, power electronics, and gearbox are the three main parts of the EDM, which offers an all-in-one solution for electric vehicle powertrains. This module-based design increases performance and range while keeping costs down.
Several recent advancements in electric car transmissions have tried to improve efficiency, performance, and range. Here are a couple such examples:
E-axles combine the electric motor, transmission, and differential in one unit. This can simplify the design and reduce the weight of electric vehicles. E-axles are becoming increasingly popular in electric vehicles, especially in high-performance electric vehicles.
A number of new and innovative electric vehicle transmission technologies are currently under development, such as electric drives and integrated motor-transmission systems. These technologies have the potential to further improve the efficiency, performance, and range of electric vehicles.
The global electric vehicle transmission market is also being driven by a number of government initiatives and regulations. For example, many governments around the world are offering subsidies and tax breaks to promote the adoption of electric vehicles. Governments are also implementing regulations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles. These initiatives and regulations are helping to drive the growth of the global electric vehicle transmission market.
There are 10+ auto suppliers active in the electric vehicle transmission market and we have profiled the top 11. BorgWarner, GKN, Jatco are among the leading players but others profiled in the report are expanding aggressively to cater to multiple EV platforms and expand their share.
The powertrain (motor + transmission) of a BEV doesn’t cost more than 5-7% of total cost of the vehicle, compared to a traditional gas-powered vehicle, where powertrain cost is 18-20% of the vehicle cost.
Batteries and power electronics on the other hand account for 25-30% of the cost of the vehicle. This is the reason why many established auto component suppliers are adopting different strategies to remain profitable in the growing EV market.
For example, suppliers like Bosch and Continental, among the biggest global auto component suppliers, are not present in the electric vehicle transmission market as yet. They are extensively banking on e-axles to grow in the EV driveline market.
Suppliers like BorgWarner and ZF are essentially targeting the hybrid vehicle segment, where they have built an extensive electrified driveline portfolio and can cater to most of the mid and high-segment vehicles.
Suppliers such as Eaton and Alisson are focusing on commercial vehicles with various products for them including e-Axles, multi-speed transmission and single-speed transmission for electric buses, fleets and trucks.
In housing of transmission is the common trend across OEMs and will be the biggest threat to transmission suppliers.
