Global Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS) Market Size, Share and Forecasts 2031

Key Findings

• Space-Based Infrared Systems (SBIRS) form the backbone of global missile warning, missile defense, and strategic surveillance architectures.

• These systems leverage advanced scanning and staring infrared sensors mounted on satellites in GEO and HEO orbits for early detection of ballistic missile launches.

• The growing sophistication of missile threats, including hypersonic glide vehicles and maneuverable re-entry vehicles, drives urgent investment in next-generation SBIRS constellations.

• SBIRS satellites increasingly provide multi-mission capabilities, including missile tracking, technical intelligence (MASINT), and battlespace awareness.

• Governments are prioritizing resilient architectures—distributed constellations, hosted payloads, and proliferated low Earth orbit (LEO) sensors—to complement legacy GEO/HEO SBIRS platforms.

• The U.S. Space Force dominates the market, with allies in Europe and Asia-Pacific investing in interoperable infrared early warning satellites.

• Advances in on-board processing, AI-enhanced threat classification, and hardened cyber-resilient architectures are key technology drivers.

• The shift from traditional SBIRS toward the Next-Gen OPIR (Overhead Persistent Infrared) constellation reflects the industry’s response to evolving threat environments.

Space-Based Infrared System Market Size and Forecast

The global SBIRS market was valued at USD 15.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 30.7 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 10.5%. This expansion is supported by increased defense budgets, heightened missile threats, and a strategic pivot toward resilient, distributed architectures.

Market growth is not limited to the U.S.; NATO allies, Japan, South Korea, and India are all investing in national or cooperative space-based infrared systems. Moreover, the integration of SBIRS data with missile defense interceptors, hypersonic defense architectures, and command & control networks significantly enhances market demand. Private-sector satellite operators and space-tech firms are increasingly contracted to provide payload hosting, manufacturing services, and AI-driven data analytics, adding depth to the ecosystem. Over the forecast horizon, SBIRS programs will continue evolving toward global, interoperable, multi-layered missile warning networks that combine GEO, HEO, and proliferated LEO satellites.

Market Overview

Space-Based Infrared Systems are strategic satellite constellations designed to provide global, persistent, and accurate detection of missile launches and heat events. Unlike ground-based radars, SBIRS satellites operate in space, giving them global coverage and early line-of-sight detection advantages. SBIRS missions extend beyond missile warning to include tracking, battlespace awareness, and technical intelligence. These systems are crucial for nuclear deterrence, integrated missile defense, and strategic stability. The ecosystem includes defense primes, satellite manufacturers, payload providers, software and AI developers, and launch service companies.

Future Outlook

The future of SBIRS will be shaped by the shift toward Next-Gen OPIR and proliferated LEO constellations, providing resilience against anti-satellite threats and increasing sensor coverage. The introduction of AI-driven onboard analytics, hypersonic threat detection algorithms, and interoperable multinational networks will redefine the market. By 2031, SBIRS will no longer be a U.S.-centric system but part of a broader, distributed global missile warning and tracking architecture involving NATO, Asian, and allied space assets.

SBIRS Market Trends

• Transition Toward Next-Gen OPIR Constellations
  Legacy SBIRS GEO and HEO satellites are being phased into next-generation OPIR programs, which emphasize resilience against jamming, cyberattacks, and kinetic ASAT threats. These new architectures prioritize proliferated constellations with smaller, more numerous satellites. This ensures continuity of coverage even under attack and reflects the growing demand for survivability in space-based defense assets.

• Integration for Hypersonic Missile Detection
  Hypersonic glide vehicles present unique infrared signatures that traditional SBIRS sensors were not optimized to track. As a result, the market is shifting toward higher-sensitivity staring sensors and multi-orbit architectures. These upgrades allow SBIRS to provide reliable tracking of maneuverable, fast-moving hypersonic threats. Investment in hypersonic defense has become one of the strongest drivers of SBIRS modernization.

• Multi-Mission Role Expansion
  SBIRS satellites are increasingly tasked with additional roles beyond missile warning, such as environmental monitoring, battlespace awareness, and intelligence collection. Multi-mission payloads enhance value for governments, creating new opportunities for vendors offering dual-use sensors and software. This trend strengthens the case for investing in resilient, flexible constellations.

• Adoption of AI and On-Board Processing
  To manage enormous data volumes and provide faster missile warning, SBIRS systems are adopting AI-driven on-board data analysis. Machine learning enhances real-time anomaly detection, improves classification of launches versus decoys, and reduces latency. This evolution shifts SBIRS from pure detection systems to intelligent, autonomous decision-support assets in missile defense.

• Allied Investments and Interoperability Programs
  Allied nations are developing or acquiring space-based IR capabilities, often interoperable with U.S. SBIRS. Programs in Europe, Japan, and South Korea emphasize collaboration in data-sharing for global missile defense. This trend expands the market by creating multinational procurement and joint development opportunities.

Market Growth Drivers

• Proliferation of Missile Threats Globally
  Ballistic and hypersonic missile programs in China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are intensifying demand for advanced missile warning systems. Nations require SBIRS to maintain credible deterrence and defense strategies.

• Defense Budget Expansion and Strategic Modernization
  Rising defense budgets in the U.S., Europe, and Asia-Pacific prioritize space-based early warning. Governments are willing to invest heavily in next-generation SBIRS to protect against emerging threats.

• Integration with Missile Defense Architectures
  SBIRS provides the foundational detection layer for integrated missile defense, feeding interceptors and command systems. Growth in missile defense investments directly correlates with expansion in SBIRS demand.

• Advances in Infrared Sensor and Satellite Technology
  Next-generation staring sensors, gallium nitride electronics, and small-satellite manufacturing efficiencies are reducing costs and improving performance. This enables more flexible and affordable SBIRS deployments.

• Strategic Emphasis on Resilient Space Architectures
  The vulnerability of large GEO satellites to ASAT weapons drives demand for distributed SBIRS constellations in LEO and MEO. Resilient architectures are becoming a core procurement requirement.

Challenges in the Market

• High Development and Deployment Costs
  SBIRS satellites involve highly complex sensors and launch services, making them among the most expensive defense systems. Budget overruns and delays pose risks to programs.

• Vulnerability to Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Threats
  Growing ASAT capabilities threaten the survivability of GEO-based SBIRS satellites. Maintaining resilience requires costly distributed architectures and redundancy measures.

• Integration Complexity Across Multi-Orbit Constellations
  Coordinating data from GEO, HEO, and LEO satellites requires sophisticated fusion algorithms, ground systems, and C2 integration. Achieving seamless interoperability remains a challenge.

• Cybersecurity and Electronic Warfare Risks
  As SBIRS relies heavily on networked data transmission, it is vulnerable to cyber intrusion, jamming, and spoofing. Governments must invest heavily in cybersecurity for SBIRS networks.

• Export Control and Technology Transfer Restrictions
  Missile warning systems are highly classified, limiting international technology transfer and slowing market expansion outside allied frameworks. This constrains global adoption potential.

SBIRS Market Segmentation

By System Type

• GEO Satellites

• HEO Payloads

• Proliferated LEO Infrared Constellations

• Ground Segment Systems

• AI/Analytics Software Solutions

By Application

• Missile Warning

• Missile Tracking

• Technical Intelligence (MASINT)

• Battlespace Awareness

• Environmental/Disaster Monitoring

By End User

• Defense Forces

• Space Agencies

• Intelligence Agencies

• Allied and Coalition Forces

By Region

• North America

• Europe

• Asia-Pacific

• Middle East & Africa

• Latin America

Leading Key Players

• Lockheed Martin Corporation

• Northrop Grumman Corporation

• Raytheon Technologies Corporation

• L3Harris Technologies

• Thales Group

• Airbus Defence and Space

• Boeing Defense, Space & Security

• Ball Aerospace

• OHB SE

• Mitsubishi Electric Corporation

Recent Developments

• Lockheed Martin Corporation advanced production of Next-Gen OPIR GEO satellites with improved staring infrared sensors for hypersonic detection.

• Northrop Grumman Corporation accelerated work on polar-orbit infrared payloads for the U.S. Space Force to complement GEO coverage.

• Raytheon Technologies Corporation unveiled new sensor integration technologies to enhance resilience of distributed SBIRS networks.

• L3Harris Technologies partnered with the U.S. Space Development Agency on proliferated LEO infrared satellite programs.

• Airbus Defence and Space began collaborative programs with European defense ministries for sovereign missile warning satellites.

This Market Report will Answer the Following Questions

• How many SBIRS satellites and payloads are manufactured per annum globally? Who are the sub-component suppliers in different regions?

• Cost Breakdown of a Global SBIRS satellite system and Key Vendor Selection Criteria.

• Where are SBIRS systems manufactured? What is the average margin per unit?

• Market share of Global SBIRS manufacturers and their upcoming products.

• Cost advantage for OEMs who manufacture SBIRS components in-house.

• Key predictions for the next 5 years in the Global SBIRS market.

• Average B2B SBIRS market price in all segments.

• Latest trends in the SBIRS market, by every market segment.

• The market size (both volume and value) of the SBIRS market in 2025–2031 and every year in between.

• Production breakup of the SBIRS market, by suppliers and their OEM relationships.