US Direct Air Capture Market Size, Share, Trends and Forecasts 2031

Key Findings

• The US Direct Air Capture Market is gaining momentum as governments and corporations accelerate commitments to net-zero targets and carbon removal strategies.
• DAC technologies in US are moving from pilot and demonstration phases into early commercial deployment, supported by policy incentives and corporate offtake agreements.
• Integration of DAC with utilization (e.g., synthetic fuels, building materials) and storage (geological sequestration) is creating hybrid business models that improve project economics.
• Advances in sorbent materials, process intensification, and modular plant design are driving cost reductions and increasing capture efficiency across new installations in US.
• Growing availability of low-cost renewable energy and access to CO₂ storage hubs are emerging as critical locational advantages for DAC projects in US.
• Public-private partnerships, project financing innovations, and carbon credit markets are unlocking capital but the market still needs predictable long-term price signals for wider scale-up.
• Stakeholder acceptance including permitting, land use, and community engagement  is becoming a key differentiator for project timelines and social license in US.

US Direct Air Capture Market Size and Forecast

The US Direct Air Capture Market is projected to grow from USD 0.9 billion in 2025 to USD 4.5 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 27.3% during the forecast period. This projection assumes accelerating policy support, growing corporate commitments to carbon removal, and incremental cost reductions from technology learning and scale. Early commercial plants, paired with CO₂ storage and utilization offtake agreements, will drive near-term revenue while long-term growth depends on the development of durable carbon removal markets and supportive regulation. Regional growth profiles will vary: areas with abundant renewable electricity, available sequestration sites, and strong climate policy will capture the largest investments. As capital costs fall and modular designs proliferate, the market is expected to broaden from specialist industrial players to mainstream energy and infrastructure investors.

Introduction

Direct Air Capture refers to engineered systems that remove carbon dioxide directly from ambient air and concentrate it for utilization or permanent storage. Unlike point-source carbon capture, DAC targets diffuse atmospheric CO₂ and is viewed as a key tool for achieving deep decarbonization and negative emissions, especially for hard-to-abate sectors. DAC technologies typically rely on chemical sorbents (solid or liquid) and downstream processes for CO₂ release, compression, and transport. In US, DAC is evolving from demonstration projects toward commercial plants, supported by R&D, pilot financing, and the emergence of carbon removal procurement by corporations and governments. The technology intersects with renewable energy availability, CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and nascent carbon markets all of which shape regional deployment pathways.

Future Outlook

By 2031, DAC in US will transition from niche, grant- or subsidy-backed pilots to a portfolio of commercially-operating facilities with diversified revenue streams. Continued reductions in capture cost driven by material innovation, scale economies, and process optimization will expand applicability. Policy instruments including carbon removal procurement, tax credits, low-carbon product mandates, and CO₂ transport/storage incentives will determine the pace and geography of scale-up. Integration of DAC with utilization (e-fuels, chemical feedstocks, carbonation for building materials) will create early commercial demand, but durable long-term growth depends on recognizing and pricing long-lived removals. Social acceptance, permitting efficiency, and transparent accounting standards will be vital to translate scientific potential into practical deployments across US.

US Direct Air Capture Market Trends

• Sorbent and process innovation accelerating cost declines
  Novel solid sorbents, advanced amine formulations, and process intensification (e.g., improved heat integration and modular engineering) are delivering higher capture rates and lower energy penalties. These innovations shorten cycle times and reduce the specific energy required per tonne of CO₂ removed, directly improving levelized cost of carbon removal. Suppliers and research labs in US are collaborating to scale up material synthesis and pilot next-generation modular units that are factory-built for rapid deployment. As materials mature, the industry is also prioritizing durability, regeneration energy, and supply-chain sustainability for sorbent feedstocks. Continued R&D investment is expected to sustain multi-year learning rates that shrink costs and broaden market fit.
• Co-location with renewables and storage hubs
  Projects in US increasingly favor sites with abundant low-carbon power and proximate geological storage or CO₂ utilization facilities. Co-locating DAC with renewable generation reduces lifecycle emissions and operating costs by ensuring low-carbon electricity supply for energy-intensive capture steps. Proximity to sequestration sites or CO₂ pipeline networks cuts transport costs and simplifies permitting for custody transfer and injection. Regional planning is coalescing around “carbon removal clusters” where multiple projects share transport and storage infrastructure, creating economies of scale. This trend is central to turning single demonstrations into scalable industrial deployments.
• Commercialization via offtake, credits, and multi-revenue models
  Early DAC projects in US are financed through corporate offtake agreements, advance market commitments, and revenue stacking combining removal credits with utilization sales or ancillary services. Voluntary carbon markets and emerging regulated markets now include nascent frameworks for verified removals, giving buyers means to procure high-integrity credits. Companies are also exploring co-products (e.g., captured CO₂ for beverage-grade use, fuels, or green chemicals) to diversify revenue and improve project economics. Transparent MRV (measurement, reporting, verification) practices and permanence guarantees are critical to buyer confidence. The evolution of credible pricing and contract structures will determine which projects move from pilot to scale.
• Modular, factory-built units enabling distributed deployment
  The industry is moving toward smaller, modular DAC units that can be mass-produced in factories and deployed rapidly at multiple sites across US. Modularization shortens construction time, reduces site civil works, and lowers upfront capital intensity compared to bespoke large plant builds. It also allows incremental capacity additions and easier retrofits as sorbents and processes improve. For regions with distributed renewable resources or limited grid capacity, modular DAC offers flexibility in siting and operation. This trend supports faster technology diffusion and reduces project execution risk for first movers.
• Regulatory and standards maturation shaping market access
  Governments and standards bodies in US are crafting regulations for carbon accounting, permanence, monitoring, and liability that directly affect DAC deployment. Clarity on storage liability, long-term monitoring requirements, and eligible removal types in compliance markets will significantly influence investor appetite. Standards for permanence, leakage risk, and co-benefits (e.g., water use, land impacts) are becoming prerequisites for credible project certification. Policy signals such as tax credits, grant programs, and procurement commitments are accelerating project pipelines where regulation is supportive. Ongoing policy refinement is expected to catalyze growth but also discriminate between regions and business models.

Market Growth Drivers

• Net-zero targets and corporate carbon removal commitments
  National net-zero pledges and voluntary corporate commitments to neutralize emissions are generating demand for high-quality carbon removals in US. DAC offers a durable removal pathway for residual emissions that are otherwise expensive or technically difficult to abate. Corporations seeking to meet science-based targets are signing multi-year offtake agreements to secure removals, providing revenue certainty for early projects. Public procurement for removals by governments and development banks is further crowding in private investment. This demand pull is foundational to the market’s near-term commercialization.
• Policy incentives and carbon pricing mechanisms
  Tax credits, direct subsidies, tradeable removal credits, and carbon price floors materially improve DAC project economics in US. Policies that lower capital risk, subsidize initial operating losses, or guarantee minimum pricing for removals accelerate private capital deployment. Regulatory recognition of DAC removals in compliance markets enhances long-term demand visibility. Supportive permitting regimes and infrastructure programs for CO₂ transport and storage also reduce project lead times. Together, these policy instruments catalyze investment and scale-up.
• Falling renewable energy costs
  Declining costs for solar, wind, and energy storage in many regions of US reduce the operational expense and carbon intensity of DAC systems. Since energy is a dominant OPEX component for most DAC processes, access to low-cost, low-carbon electricity improves both economics and lifecycle integrity. Power purchase agreements (PPAs) and co-location strategies are enabling DAC plants to secure competitive energy. This driver links the fortunes of DAC to renewable energy deployments and grid decarbonization.
• Advances in material science and engineering
  Breakthroughs in sorbent chemistry, durable membrane materials, and thermal management technologies lower regeneration energy and capital cost. Improved process designs including heat recovery, electrification of regeneration steps, and optimized contactor geometries  enhance capture efficiency. Industrial scaling of material manufacture reduces unit costs and supply-chain bottlenecks. These technical improvements are a core growth engine enabling cost curves that make commercial DAC viable.
• Investment and venture capital interest
  Growing investor appetite for climate technologies is channeling capital toward DAC developers, enabling rapid iteration from pilots to demonstration plants. Specialized climate funds, corporate venture arms, and project finance vehicles are structuring innovative financing (e.g., advance purchase agreements, blended finance) to de-risk early projects. Capital availability accelerates R&D, manufacturing capacity, and site development. As projects demonstrate performance and removals are credibly verified, investment continues to scale, feeding a virtuous cycle of deployment and learning.

Challenges in the Market

• High current cost of removal
  DAC today is energy-intensive and capital-heavy relative to many alternative mitigation options, resulting in high cost per tonne of CO₂ removed. Achieving the cost reductions necessary for broad deployment requires sustained R&D, scaled manufacturing, and learning-by-doing. Until costs fall into a commercially attractive band, DAC projects often rely on subsidies or premium corporate buyers. This economic barrier limits adoption to well-funded pilots and niche use cases absent strong policy support. Addressing cost through innovation and policy remains the market’s central challenge.
• Long lead times and permitting complexity
  Large DAC projects require complex permitting for land use, energy interconnection, CO₂ transport, and storage  processes that can extend multi-year timelines in US. Regulatory uncertainty and fragmented permitting frameworks increase execution risk and capital costs. Local opposition or unclear environmental reviews can delay projects or increase compliance burden. Streamlined permitting, standardized environmental assessments, and early community engagement are needed to accelerate projects. Without administrative efficiency, scale-up will be constrained.
• CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure gaps
  Permanent sequestration via geological storage or long-lived mineralization requires pipelines, injection hubs, and monitoring networks that are underdeveloped in many regions of US. Building shared infrastructure is capital-intensive and requires coordinated policy and commercial models. Where storage or pipeline access is limited, DAC projects face prohibitive transport costs or must rely on utilization pathways with different economic profiles. Developing regional storage hubs and shared transport lowers barriers but requires upfront coordination. Infrastructure constraints therefore materially limit siting and scalability.
• MRV, permanence and credibility concerns
  Buyers and regulators demand robust measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems to ensure removals are real, additional, and permanent. Uncertainties around leakage, long-term storage integrity, and double-counting undermine buyer confidence. Standardized, third-party verification frameworks and transparent public registries are still evolving in US. Without trusted MRV, corporate offtakes and public procurement will be cautious and prices suppressed. Credible standards and long-term monitoring systems are essential to build market trust.
• Water use and local environmental impacts
  Some DAC processes (particularly certain liquid-sorbent systems) have significant water footprints or require chemical inputs that raise local environmental concerns. In water-stressed regions of US, high water use can trigger opposition and restrict deployment. Local air quality, land-use competition, and ecosystem impacts must be managed through careful site selection and mitigation strategies. Projects that minimize resource intensity and demonstrate co-benefits (e.g., use of brackish water, integration with desalination) will be more feasible. Environmental trade-offs must be transparently addressed to secure social license.

US Direct Air Capture Market Segmentation

By Technology

• Solid-sorbent DAC
• Liquid-solvent (chemical) DAC
• Electrochemical DAC
• Hybrid / Emerging Technologies

By Application

• Permanent Geological Storage
• Carbon Utilization (e-fuels, chemicals, materials)
• Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) limited/per regionally dependent
• On-site industrial carbon management

By End-User

• Energy & Utilities
• Heavy Industry (steel, cement, chemicals)
• Oil & Gas (where permitted)
• Corporate Buyers / Tech Buyers (procurement of removal credits)
• Government & Public Sector

By Deployment Model

• Standalone Commercial Plants
• Co-located with Renewables / Industrial Clusters
• Modular / Distributed Units
• Mobile / Temporary Units

Leading Key Players

• Climeworks AG
• Carbon Engineering Ltd.
• Global Thermostat
• Heirloom
• CarbonCure Technologies (utilization partnerships)
• Occidental (Oxy) / 1PointFive (storage & commercialization)
• Prometheus Fuels (utilization pathways)
• Svante (solid sorbent technology)
• Project developers and engineering firms (regional specialists and EPCs)
• Utilities and oil & gas majors (enterprise-scale sponsors and storage partners)

Recent Developments

• Commercial first-of-a-kind plants have moved from demonstration to operational stages in several regions, showing real-world performance and informing cost estimates.
• Governments and multilateral development banks have announced procurement programs and prize funds to accelerate DAC demonstrations and scale.
• Corporate offtake agreements and advance market commitments (AMCs) are providing early revenue streams for developers.
• New partnerships are forming around shared CO₂ transport and storage hubs to reduce individual project infrastructure costs.
• Material science breakthroughs and pilot tests of modular factory production are improving the lead time and capital intensity of new plants.

This Market Report Will Answer the Following Questions

1. What is the projected market size and CAGR of the US Direct Air Capture Market by 2031?
2. Which DAC technologies (solid sorbent, liquid solvent, electrochemical) are likely to dominate in US and why?
3. Which end-use applications (storage vs utilization) will generate the most revenue in the near term?
4. How do regional factors renewables availability, storage sites, permitting regimes affect siting and economics in US?
5. What are the main cost drivers and pathways to achieve economically scalable DAC in US?
6. Which policy instruments (tax credits, procurement, carbon pricing) most effectively accelerate DAC deployment?
7. Who are the leading players and what are their strategic positions, partnerships, and technology approaches in US?
8. What are the measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) best practices and permanence standards applicable to DAC projects?
9. How will CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure need to evolve to support multi-GW scale DAC deployment in US?
10. What are the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations water use, land use, community engagement that project developers must manage?