CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET

KEY FINDINGS

  1. In 2019, EV sales declined in China by 4% to 1.2 Million units, missing the stipulated quota of 8% of annual sales by almost 0.5 Million units
  2. BEVs comprised 81% of total EV sales in 2019.As of Jan 2020, 242 BEV models are available for sale in China, as compared to 26 in Europe and 24 in US. BAIC Group’s NEV unit BJEV sold the highest 150,000 units, the market leader of battery-only electric vehicles in China since 2013.
  3. BYD was the market leader in 2019 with ~20% market share, followed by BAIC with ~15% share.
  4. To arrest decline in EV sales post withdrawal of subsidy, Chinese OEMs launched lucrative schemes. For example, BAIC New Energy EC5 introduced a “double exemption policy”, namely interest-free loans and no down payment for car purchases
  5. Electric buses comprised 81% of all electric commercial vehicles sold in 2019. Yutong is the market leader with ~30% market share
  6. Total deployed capacity in terms of Li-ion batteries across EVs (including commercial vehicles) was 62 GWh in 2019, almost 2X of US and Europe
  7. CATL is the market leader in EV batteries with more than 51% market share, followed by BYD 17% share. CATL has more than 60% market share of installed battery capacity in electric buses in 2019.

 

 

Info Graphic: China Electric Vehicle Market

INTRODUCTION

China is world`s biggest automotive market, by volume. In 2019, the production and sales of passenger cars was 21.3 Million units and 21.4 Million units, respectively. Production and sales dropped by ~9% and 9.5% year-on-year respectively– ~12% de-growth in sales from peak of 24 Million units in 2016. But, in the premium segment (Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, Volvo and Cadillac), sales grew by 8% to 2.6 Million units or13% of annual car sales. Table- Sales volume of International brands in China

OEM2019-Sales volume (M units)YOY Growth%
GM3.09(15%)
VW2.01(3%)
Ford0.57(26%)
BMW Including Mini.7213%
Mercedes Including Smart.704%
Audi.694%
Lexus.2025%

Electric vehicles comprised ~5% of new car sales in 2018 and 2019.

MARKET DYNAMICS

China after spending $3 Billion in subsidy expenditure in 2018 has raised technical threshold for the same. For instance, an EV purchased by a commercial fleet user would be given subsidies only if its aggregated driving range exceeded 20,000km per annum. Additionally, automakers are required to build platforms for monitoring operational status of vehicles sold and connect them with a national regulation platform that was launched in 2016. As the EV market slowed down in H2-2019, due to subsidy cut, finally dragging down full year- 2019 EV volumes, the EV startups were most affected. For example, WEY had set itself a target of 100,000 units EV sales but ended up selling just 17% of that.

THE SUBSIDY WITHDRAWAL EFFECT ON CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET

Starting 12th June 2019, when new subsidy rules came into effect, sales of A00 compact EVs dropped sharply pulling down the overall EV volumes by a steep ~50% in July. It was only post Q3 2019 when almost all car companies upgraded their compact EVs to >250km range that the EV sales started rebounding. In Nov 2019, sales grew ~20% (MOM) and in December it grew by ~70% (MOM).

Infographic: China electric vehicle market by month
China electric vehicle market by month

 

MARKET SEGMENTATION

Infographic: China Electric Vehicle(EV) market report

 

MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST

China electric vehicle market is estimated at $45 Billion in 2019. The Chinese EV battery market alone is estimated at $9.3 Billion. To know more about it read our report EV Battery Market in China  In 2020, SAIC-GM(2nd biggest EV player in China) will launch 10 new models, including 2 BEVs. By 2025, SAIC-GM will invest $4.5 Billion to launch more than 9 new energy models.  BAIC BJEV has developed three EV platforms, BE11, BE22 and BE22, which will underpin more than 30 vehicles by 2025.

Infographic: China EV market breakup by model, China EV market size, China EV market report, China EV market data

CHINA PHEV ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET

The PHEV segment market in China declined in 2019, with cumulative 207 k units sold. About 60% of that was sold in H1 2019 and in H2 2019, only 80,000 units were sold. Unlike the BEV segment, which is dominated by domestic companies, in the PHEV segment, the foreign-domestic joint ventures have an upper hand. There are 16 companies active in the PHEV segment compared to 100+ in BEV segment. BYD, BMW Brilliance and SAIC Volkswagen are the market leaders in the PHEV segment. BYD Tang PHEV sold 34k units followed by BMW 5 Series PHEV with 27k units and SAIC- Volkswagen Passat with 21k units. These three models comprised 40% of PHEV sales in 2019 in China.

CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE BATTERY MARKET

China comprised 50% of global EV sales volume in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 and more than 70% of them were BEVs in 2016, 2017, 2018. In 2019, the BEV share went up to 80%. In the commercial vehicle segment, buses comprised 81% of 100k units electric commercial vehicle market, with average battery capacity of 233kWh, pushing China`s installed power battery capacity volume to 62GWh in 2019.   Info-graphics: China EV Installed Battery Capacity

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

The Chinese major, SAIC has plans to start EV manufacturing in India and Thailand. Since SAIC is well positioned to absorb the higher cost and low margin of EVs presently, we believe it can boost EV uptake in both India and ASEAN region. BYD(18% market share in EV passenger cars) declined by 4% YOY to 219,000 units  in 2019. It had 9% share of Electric bus market in China.

COMPANY PROFILES

ELECTRIC CAR MANUFACTURERS

  1. BYD Company Limited
  2. SAIC
  3. BAIC Group
  4. JAC
  5. NIO
  6. Geely

ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS

  1. CRRC Electric
  2. Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co. Ltd.
  3. Haige Bus((Suzhou Jinlong)
  4. Jinlong Bus
  5. Higer Bus Company Limited
  6. Foton Ouhui
  7. Shenlong Bus
  8. BYD Company Limited
  9. Kaiwo Automobile (Nanjing Jinlong)
  10. Zhongtong Bus Holding Co. Ltd.
  11. Ankai Bus

 

THIS REPORT WILL ANSWER FOLLOWING QUESTIONS

  1. Upcoming vehicles, by OEM, by vehicle type and by EV type (2020-2025)
  2. EV sales, by top 10 cities and state-wise legislation
  3. Advancements in EV battery by Chinese players
  4. Opportunity for traction motor , motor controller, on-board charger and Inverter manufacturers
  5. On-going developments in Electric commercial vehicle market, vehicles in pipeline and estimated sales volume
  6. OE-supplier alignment for battery, On-board charger and DC-DC Converter

 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Sl noTopic
1Market Segmentation
2Scope of the report
3Abbreviations
4Research Methodology
5Executive Summary
6Introduction
7Insights from Industry stakeholders
8Cost breakdown of Product by sub-components and average profit margin
9Disruptive innovation in the Industry
10Technology trends in the Industry
11Consumer trends in the industry
12Recent Production Milestones
13Component Manufacturing in US, EU and China
14COVID-19 impact on overall market
15COVID-19 impact on Production of components
16COVID-19 impact on Point of sale
17Market Segmentation, Dynamics and Forecast by Geography, 2020-2025
18Market Segmentation, Dynamics and Forecast by Product Type, 2020-2025
19Market Segmentation, Dynamics and Forecast by Application, 2020-2025
20Market Segmentation, Dynamics and Forecast by End use, 2020-2025
21Product installation rate by OEM, 2020
22Incline/Decline in Average B-2-B selling price in past 5 years
23Competition from substitute products
24Gross margin and average profitability of suppliers
25New product development in past 12 months
26M&A in past 12 months
27Growth strategy of leading players
28Market share of vendors, 2020
29Company Profiles
30Unmet needs and opportunity for new suppliers
31Conclusion
32Appendix

 

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