China Electric Vehicle Market 2022-2027

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    CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET 2021-2026

    KEY FINDINGS

    1. In 2020, EV sales increased in China by 12% to 1.4 Million units, missing the stipulated quota of 8% of annual sales by almost 0.5 Million units
    2. BEVs comprised 78% of total EV sales in 2020.As of Mar 2021, 212 BEV models are available for sale in China, as compared to 41 in Europe and 22 in US. Tesla Model 3 sold 140,000 in 2020 and was the market leader
    3. SGMW was the market leader in 2020 with ~15% market share, followed by BYD with ~14% share and Tesla had 11%
    4. To arrest decline in EV sales post withdrawal of subsidy, Chinese OEMs launched lucrative schemes. For example, BAIC New Energy EC5 introduced a “double exemption policy”, namely interest-free loans and no down payment for car purchases
    5. Electric buses comprised 83% of all electric commercial vehicles sold in 2020. Yutong is the market leader with ~26% market share
    6. Total deployed capacity in terms of Li-ion batteries across EVs (including commercial vehicles) was 81 GWh in 2019
    7. CATL is the market leader in EV batteries with more than 53% market share, followed by BYD 19% share. CATL has more than 62% market share of installed battery capacity in electric buses in 2020.

     

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    INTRODUCTION

    China is world`s biggest automotive market, by volume. In 2020, the sales of automobiles were 25.3 Million units a drop of 1.9% mainly due to Covid. This was the third year with negative YoY growth, respectively.

     

    Electric vehicles however grew by 10.9% year with 1.4 Million units which showcased a growing demand. Due to Covid, the subsidies were extended for 2 more years with a 10% drop every year. Subsidies were the driving factor in China for high electric vehicle sales

     

    To know more about Global Electric Car Market, read our report

     

    CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET DYNAMICS

     

    SI No Timeline Company Developments
    1 Jan 2022 Audi Audi received authorisation to establish a $3.3 billion electric vehicle joint venture with FAW in China, with production slated to begin in 2024.
    2 Jan 2022 BYD The popular Chinese battery and electric carmaker BYD will be releasing  3 new EVs this year named as BYD Seal, the BYD Seagull and the BYD Sea Lion later this year.
    3 Dec 2021 SsangYong SsangYong Motor agreed to collaborate with BYD Auto to create automobile batteries and battery packs for its models.

     

     

    SI no Timeline Company Developments
    1 December 2021 Toyota Toyota has been partnered with China BYD’s in order to build a new affordable electric car launch in the next year. The price range will be around $30,000.
    2 November 2021 Tesla Tesla has invested $200 million in order to expand their GigaFactory China and they will hire 4,000 people.
    3 July 2021 Geely Geely auto and Inchcape have been signed on a global partnership in order to jointly explore business in Chile.
    4 May 2021 NIO NIO is set to expand for the first time out of its home country, starting with a launch of electric vehicles in Norway.
    5 February 2021 Ford Ford has signed a joint venture with China’s Zotye Automobile. They will invest $756 million in a 50-50 venture and they will produce small electric cars.
    6 February 2021 Geely Geely has been partnered with Volvo Groups in order to maximize the strengths of the Swedish and Chinese Automotive Groups, autonomous drive technologies, and sharing of EV architecture.

     

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    China after spending $3 Billion in subsidy expenditure in 2018 has raised technical threshold for the same. For instance, an EV purchased by a commercial fleet user would be given subsidies only if its aggregated driving range exceeded 20,000km per annum. Additionally, automakers are required to build platforms for monitoring operational status of vehicles sold and connect them with a national regulation platform that was launched in 2016.

     

     As the EV market slowed down in H2-2019, due to subsidy cut, finally dragging down full year- 2019 EV volumes, the EV startups were most affected. For example, WEY had set itself a target of 100,000 units EV sales but ended up selling just 17% of that.

     

    Xiaomi announces its foray into electric vehicle (EV) sphere in March 2021, the brand is planning to invest about $10 billion over the next decade in manufacturing EVs.

     

    BYD Co Ltd, China’s largest electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, has announced that it will no longer develop combustion engine vehicles and will instead focus on pure electric and heavily electrified plug-in hybrid vehicles.

     

    In the future, BYD will concentrate on pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

     

    Smaller, more efficient engines will continue to be employed in plug-in hybrid cars, therefore BYD will not fully quit producing gasoline engines.

     

     

    THE SUBSIDY WITHDRAWAL EFFECT ON CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET

    Starting 12th June 2019, when new subsidy rules came into effect, sales of A00 compact EVs dropped sharply pulling down the overall EV volumes by a steep ~50% in July. It was only post Q3 2019 when almost all car companies upgraded their compact EVs to >250km range that the EV sales started rebounding. In Nov 2019, sales grew ~20% (MOM) and in December it grew by ~70% (MOM).

     

    However in 2020, A00 held more than 20% of the market share. Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities prefer city EVs while Tier 1 cities prefer bigger EVs. Due to Covid , subsidies are extended for 2 more years. Money was also put in to improve infrastructure across the country.

     

    For the first half of 2021, XPeng set up two sales service subsidiaries in Hainan province, which are located in Haikou and Sanya. Both of them are wholly held by Xiaopeng Automobile Sales Co., Ltd., and are allowed to work on car rental service, wholesale of auto parts, roadside assistance service, distribution of used cars, and sale of new energy vehicles and battery swapping facilities.

     

    Full NEV subsidy programme phase-out postponed from end of 2020 to end of 2022 (from April 2020, NEV subsidy reduction of 10% from 2019-2020, and an additional 20% reduction in 2021).

     

    Infographic: China electric vehicle market by month

                                          China electric vehicle market by month

     

     

    CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET SEGMENTATION

    Infographic: China Electric Vehicle(EV) market report, china's ev market, china ev market share by company

     

     

    CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST

    China electric vehicle market is estimated at $49 Billion in 2020. The Chinese EV battery market alone is estimated at $10.4 Billion. To know more about it read our report EV Battery Market in China  In 2020, SAIC-GM(2nd biggest EV player in China) will launched 10 new models, including 2 BEVs. By 2025, SAIC-GM will invest $4.5 Billion to launch more than 9 new energy models.  BAIC BJEV has developed three EV platforms, BE11, BE22 and BE22, which will underpin more than 30 vehicles by 2025.

    Infographic: china ev market share by company, China EV market breakup by model, china's ev market, China EV market size, China EV market report, China EV market data

     

     

    RECENT TRENDS IN THE CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET

     

    SI no Timeline Company Developments
    1 November 2021 Changan China’s Changan Automobile Company has launched its new Avatr electric vehicle(EV) brand and it will launch its first model in 2022.
    2 November 2021 Neta Chinese startup Neta Automobile Group has revealed the V Pro model with a price of RMB 76,900 and RMB 80,900 after subsidies.
    3 November 2021 Tesla Tesla has started delivering the Performance Model Y in China with a price of RMB 387,900.
    4 November 2021 Mercedes-Benz Mercedes-Benz has announced the launch of EQA and EQB, two new electric SUV at the Auto Guangzhou Show, China.
    5 November 2021 XPeng EV automaker XPeng has revealed its fourth EV at the International Automobile Exhibition in China. The new EV SUV is “the G9” and will arrive with its latest technology. The G9 will be able to charge up to 200km of range in 5 minutes, with maximum energy efficiency of 95%.
    6 November 2021 Geely Chinese automotive maker Geely has announced that in the next half of the year they are planning to release an all-electric pickup truck.
    7 September 2021 Geometry Geometry, the pure electric brand from Geely Auto Group has revealed its most affordable EX3 Crossover with an estimated price of RMB 59,700 which offers a 322km range.
    8 September 2021 Baojun In China, Baojun has launched the Baojun Kiwi EV, the four-seated EV. There are two versions of Baojun Kiwi EV – Standard at 69,800 CNY and premium offered at 78,800 CNY.
    9 September 2021 Yutong In Mexico, 10 Yutong 18-meter all electric BRT buses have been delivered from China in order to start the full-electric BRT era in the city.
    10 May 2021 Higer At the Shanghai International Auto show, Higer has showcased its 5G driverless bus. It clocks upto 20-50 km/hr and low-speed scenarios of fixed routes.
    11 March 2021 SAIC The MG brand, owned by SAIC, has launched the R ES33 concept, a couple-like electric crossover in China.
    12 March 2021 Yutong Yutong has delivered 55 E12 full electric buses in Denmark from China and the market share has been increased to 60%.
    13 January 2021 NIO NIO day 2020 was held in Chengdu. NIO has launched its first autonomous driving model, NIO ET7, a smart electric flagship sedan. The ET7 will range from RMB 448,000 or from RMB 378,000 with BaaS(Battery as a Service).

     

    • BYD Company Limited sets up a wholly-owned battery subsidiary in Yancheng, Jiangsu province.
    • BYD to supply Tesla with its ultra-safe “Blade Battery” it incurs increase of 50% of space utilization as compared to conventional LFP block batteries.
      • The Blade Battery is a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery, which is designed to mitigate concerns about battery safety in electric vehicles.
      • The designed structure consists of singular cells that are arranged together in an array and then inserted into a battery pack .
    • Chinese power battery giant CATL launches its first-generation sodium-ion battery on , the product aims to provide all-new solutions for the development of clean energy and electrified transportation, and contribute to the achievement of carbon neutrality.
      • The newly-launched battery is compatible and complementary with lithium-ion batteries and has advantages in low-temperature performance, fast-charging, and environmental adaptability.
    • SAIC Z-ONE, the software arm of SAIC Motor announces its strategic partnership with Chinese automotive SoC (system-on-chip).
      • Their core R&D capabilities and resources will be responsible to develop roadmap for chips and complete vehicle electrical architecture pivoting on SAIC Z-ONE’s Galaxy Full-stack Solution 3.0 digital platform.
      • The company will co-explore and develop the operating systems compatible with the Galaxy Full-stack Solution 3.0 and vigorously promote the replacement of imported chips with locally-made ones, and explore the joint R&D of customized chips and relevant business cooperation models.

     

     

    COVID IMPACT ON CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET

     

    As the pandemic began to surge in early 2020, there was a general expectation that electric car markets would likely be more resilient than the general automotive sector although a drop in electric car sales was generally expected nonetheless which may also stimulate future electric vehicle demand especially for large electric cars with better performance.

     

    China, among one of the earliest regions affected by COVID-19 took a great part in the global electric vehicle market and attracts growing attention on its post-pandemic trends in the electric vehicle industry.

     

    Since electric vehicle development was critical to achieve the sustainable goals, the hit of COVID-19 struck the market and brought challenges to the whole industry.

     

    The social distancing trend after pandemic challenged traditional EV distribution channels with dealers, pushing automakers to develop innovative online selling channels.

     

    The travel restrictions caused by COVID-19 have interrupted electric vehicle material supplies that relied on imports, hereby accelerating domestic substitute exploitation and inventory improvement for critical parts. Additionally, massive lockdowns for controlling COVID-19 have disrupted productions and operations, which tended to expel small brands out of the competitive market, concentrating China’s electric vehicle industry to the leading brands.

     

    CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE BATTERY MARKET

    China comprised 50% of global EV sales volume in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 and more than 70% of them were BEVs in 2016, 2017, 2018.In 2020, it decreased to 40% of the global share. In 2020, the BEV share went up to 78%. In the commercial vehicle segment, buses comprised 81% of 100k units electric commercial vehicle market, with average battery capacity of 233kWh, pushing China`s installed power battery capacity volume to 84GWh in 2020


    Info-graphics: China EV Installed Battery Capacity, china's ev market, china ev market share by company

     

    China is pushing hard for swappable batteries for electric cars (EVs) as a supplement to conventional vehicle charging, with the government backing multiple companies working on the technology.

     

    Rather than putting the car into a charging station, battery switching allows drivers to easily exchange depleted packs with fully charged ones. Swapping batteries could help reduce the load on power networks as millions of vehicles charge up, but experts warn that it will only take off if batteries become industry-wide standardised.

     

    The world’s largest battery manufacturer, CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Company Ltd) of Ningde, was creating switching services not just for China, but also for global markets.

     

    RECENT PARTNERSHIPS IN CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET

    BYD, a Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, has inked a strategic collaboration deal with Shell, under which the two companies would collaborate on projects in both China and Europe.

     

    BYD also stated that the two businesses would form a cooperative venture in China to develop a vehicle charging network. The network would start with more than 10,000 electric vehicle charging stations in Shenzhen, with plans to expand to other cities.

     

     

     

    CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

     

    SI No Timeline Company Developments
    1 January 2022 XPeng The company announced its electric vehicle delivery details, with shipments nearly hitting 13,000 units in January 2022.
    3 January 2022 Tesla In December 2021,the total volume of sales amounted to 59,845 units, which is 286% more than a year ago.Previous month sales accounted for about a third of the total: 19,346 (up 25% year-over-year).
    4 January 2022 BYD In January 2022 the Chinese manufacturer BYD managed to sell 92,926 plug-in cars (almost entirely in China), which is 268% more than a year ago.

    This result is the eighth consecutive monthly record. The previous highest monthly result was 92,823 in December.

     

     

     

    SI no Timeline Company Sales
    1 Q3-2021 BYD The total revenue of BYD at the end of third quarter was RMB 154 billion and in the previous year the revenue was RMB 164 billion.
    2 Q3-2021 NIO At the end of third quarter the total revenue of NIO was RMB 9.8 billion and in the previous quarter the revenue was RMB 8.4 billion.
    3 Q3-2021 SAIC Motor The Earning Per Share(EPS) of SAIC Motor from January to September is ¥1.75 billion.

     

    The Chinese major, SAIC has plans to start EV manufacturing in India and Thailand. Since SAIC is well positioned to absorb the higher cost and low margin of EVs presently, we believe it can boost EV uptake in both India and ASEAN region. BYD(18% market share in EV passenger cars) declined by 4% YOY to 219,000 units  in 2019. It had 9% share of Electric bus market in China.

    • MoU framework agreement between Geely holding group and Renault Group aims to create an innovative cooperation.
      • They will jointly introduce Renault-branded hybrid vehicles based on Geely’s technologies and industrial footprint while the French company will be responsible for branding strategy, channel and service development, defining appropriate customer journey .
    • Chinese EV startup NIO and Shanghai Lingang Economic Development (Group) Co.,Ltd. (Lingang Group ,entered into a strategic partnership on August 2021 to co-work on promoting the development of local new energy vehicle (NEV) industry.
    • Guangdong Hengqin Xiaomi Technology Development Co.,Ltd. (called “Zhuhai Xiaomi” for short) a new company launched in 2021 , involves a registered capital of 1 million yuan ($154.7 million) and is wholly owned by Xiaomi Technology Co.,Ltd. It involves a line of business covering sale of NEVs, import & export of technologies and goods, information system integration service, software development, and manufacturing of communications facilities.

     

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    CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET COMPANY PROFILES

    ELECTRIC CAR MANUFACTURERS

    1. BYD Company Limited
    2. SAIC
    3. BAIC Group
    4. JAC
    5. NIO
    6. Geely

    ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS

    1. CRRC Electric
    2. Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co. Ltd.
    3. Haige Bus((Suzhou Jinlong)
    4. Jinlong Bus
    5. Higer Bus Company Limited
    6. Foton Ouhui
    7. Shenlong Bus
    8. BYD Company Limited
    9. Kaiwo Automobile (Nanjing Jinlong)
    10. Zhongtong Bus Holding Co. Ltd.
    11. Ankai Bus

     

    THIS CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET REPORT WILL ANSWER FOLLOWING QUESTIONS

    1. China Electric Vehicle Market size and Forecast, by region, by application
    2. Average B-2-B price for China Electric Vehicle Market, by region, per user
    3. Technology trends and related opportunity for new China Electric Vehicle Market tech suppliers
    4. China Electric Vehicle Market share of leading vendors, by region,
    5.  Coronavirus impact on China Electric Vehicle Market earnings

     

    Sl no Topic
    1 Market Segmentation
    2 Scope of the report
    3 Abbreviations
    4 Research Methodology
    5 Executive Summary
    6 Introduction
    7 Insights from Industry stakeholders
    8 Cost breakdown of Product by sub-components and average profit margin
    9 Disruptive innovation in the Industry
    10 Technology trends in the Industry
    11 Consumer trends in the industry
    12 Recent Production Milestones
    13 Component Manufacturing in US, EU and China
    14 COVID-19 impact on overall market
    15 COVID-19 impact on Production of components
    16 COVID-19 impact on Point of sale
    17 Market Segmentation, Dynamics and Forecast by Geography, 2022-2027
    18 Market Segmentation, Dynamics and Forecast by Product Type, 2022-2027
    19 Market Segmentation, Dynamics and Forecast by Application, 2022-2027
    20 Market Segmentation, Dynamics and Forecast by End use, 2022-2027
    21 Product installation rate by OEM, 2022
    22 Incline/Decline in Average B-2-B selling price in past 5 years
    23 Competition from substitute products
    24 Gross margin and average profitability of suppliers
    25 New product development in past 12 months
    26 M&A in past 12 months
    27 Growth strategy of leading players
    28 Market share of vendors, 2022
    29 Company Profiles
    30 Unmet needs and opportunity for new suppliers
    31 Conclusion
    32 Appendix

     

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