CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET
- In 2020, EV sales increased in China by 12% to 1.4 Million units, missing the stipulated quota of 8% of annual sales by almost 0.5 Million units
- BEVs comprised 78% of total EV sales in 2020.As of Mar 2021, 212 BEV models are available for sale in China, as compared to 41 in Europe and 22 in US. Tesla Model 3 sold 140,000 in 2020 and was the market leader
- SGMW was the market leader in 2020 with ~15% market share, followed by BYD with ~14% share and Tesla had 11%
- To arrest decline in EV sales post withdrawal of subsidy, Chinese OEMs launched lucrative schemes. For example, BAIC New Energy EC5 introduced a “double exemption policy”, namely interest-free loans and no down payment for car purchases
- Electric buses comprised 83% of all electric commercial vehicles sold in 2020. Yutong is the market leader with ~26% market share
- Total deployed capacity in terms of Li-ion batteries across EVs (including commercial vehicles) was 81 GWh in 2019
- CATL is the market leader in EV batteries with more than 53% market share, followed by BYD 19% share. CATL has more than 62% market share of installed battery capacity in electric buses in 2020.
China is world`s biggest automotive market, by volume. In 2020, the sales of automobiles were 25.3 Million units a drop of 1.9% mainly due to Covid. This was the third year with negative YoY growth, respectively.
Electric vehicles however grew by 10.9% year with 1.4 Million units which showcased a growing demand. Due to Covid, the subsidies were extended for 2 more years with a 10% drop every year. Subsidies were the driving factor in China for high electric vehicle sales
CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET DYNAMICS
China after spending $3 Billion in subsidy expenditure in 2018 has raised technical threshold for the same. For instance, an EV purchased by a commercial fleet user would be given subsidies only if its aggregated driving range exceeded 20,000km per annum. Additionally, automakers are required to build platforms for monitoring operational status of vehicles sold and connect them with a national regulation platform that was launched in 2016.
As the EV market slowed down in H2-2019, due to subsidy cut, finally dragging down full year- 2019 EV volumes, the EV startups were most affected. For example, WEY had set itself a target of 100,000 units EV sales but ended up selling just 17% of that.
THE SUBSIDY WITHDRAWAL EFFECT ON CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET
Starting 12th June 2019, when new subsidy rules came into effect, sales of A00 compact EVs dropped sharply pulling down the overall EV volumes by a steep ~50% in July. It was only post Q3 2019 when almost all car companies upgraded their compact EVs to >250km range that the EV sales started rebounding. In Nov 2019, sales grew ~20% (MOM) and in December it grew by ~70% (MOM).
However in 2020, A00 held more than 20% of the market share. Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities prefer city EVs while Tier 1 cities prefer bigger EVs. Due to Covid , subsidies are extended for 2 more years. Money was also put in to improve infrastructure across the country.
China electric vehicle market by month
CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET SEGMENTATION
CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
China electric vehicle market is estimated at $49 Billion in 2020. The Chinese EV battery market alone is estimated at $10.4 Billion. To know more about it read our report EV Battery Market in China In 2020, SAIC-GM(2nd biggest EV player in China) will launched 10 new models, including 2 BEVs. By 2025, SAIC-GM will invest $4.5 Billion to launch more than 9 new energy models. BAIC BJEV has developed three EV platforms, BE11, BE22 and BE22, which will underpin more than 30 vehicles by 2025.
CHINA ELECTRIC VEHICLE BATTERY MARKET
China comprised 50% of global EV sales volume in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 and more than 70% of them were BEVs in 2016, 2017, 2018.In 2020, it decreased to 40% of the global share. In 2020, the BEV share went up to 78%. In the commercial vehicle segment, buses comprised 81% of 100k units electric commercial vehicle market, with average battery capacity of 233kWh, pushing China`s installed power battery capacity volume to 84GWh in 2020
The Chinese major, SAIC has plans to start EV manufacturing in India and Thailand. Since SAIC is well positioned to absorb the higher cost and low margin of EVs presently, we believe it can boost EV uptake in both India and ASEAN region. BYD(18% market share in EV passenger cars) declined by 4% YOY to 219,000 units in 2019. It had 9% share of Electric bus market in China.
ELECTRIC CAR MANUFACTURERS
ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS
- CRRC Electric
- Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co. Ltd.
- Haige Bus((Suzhou Jinlong)
- Jinlong Bus
- Higer Bus Company Limited
- Foton Ouhui
- Shenlong Bus
- BYD Company Limited
- Kaiwo Automobile (Nanjing Jinlong)
- Zhongtong Bus Holding Co. Ltd.
- Ankai Bus
THIS REPORT WILL ANSWER FOLLOWING QUESTIONS
- Upcoming vehicles, by OEM, by vehicle type and by EV type (2020-2025)
- EV sales, by top 10 cities and state-wise legislation
- Advancements in EV battery by Chinese players
- Opportunity for traction motor , motor controller, on-board charger and Inverter manufacturers
- On-going developments in Electric commercial vehicle market, vehicles in pipeline and estimated sales volume
- OE-supplier alignment for battery, On-board charger and DC-DC Converter