ELECTRIC CAR MARKET- SUMMARY

Globally, as of Dec 2019, there are ~380 Electric cars (HEVs+ BEVs+ PHEVs) on sale generating ~4.5 Million-unit sales annually across the globe. The electric vehicle market penetration will be ~5% in 2019 and by 2025 it could go past 15%. The electric car sales were earlier (till 2015) driven by vehicle electrification of ICE based platforms by but now as more than 80 OEMs have launched 300+ electric cars, share of electric cars (BEVs+ PHEVs) has now grown to ~48% of all electric car sales     Info Graphic: Global Electric Car Market

MARKET DYNAMICS

The electric vehicle sales in 2019 is expected to grow by just 10%-15% as compared to 25-30% estimated earlier in 2019. The de-growth in Chinese market by 12-13% in Jan-Oct 2019 is a key contributor to that.   The most recent electric car market trends point to the fact that long range BEVs will be the future (150+ BEVs already in development), Their share has already grown from ~60% in 2016 to ~77% in YTD Oct 2019.

 

ELECTRIC CAR MARKET SIZE 

The global electric car market size was estimated at  $88 Billion in 2018, growing at 51% CAGR since 2013.   Electric vehicle market size was $88 Billion in 2018

 

ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET ANALYSIS

  1. China, US, Europe, and Japan make up for 95% of electric car sales, as of Oct 2019.
  2. In the US electric car market, the volumes in 2019 is expected to remain at similar levels as 2018 but Tesla will grow its share to ~60%.
  3. In the Europe electric car market, the volumes in 2019 are estimated at ~0.5 Million units– 25% YOY increase. BMW is the market leader with ~18% market share.
  4. China will remain the growth engine of global electric car market till 2025, driving 45-50% of global market volume.

 

ELECTRIC CAR MARKET SHARE OVERVIEW

The below market share graph is valid for BEV+PHEVs only as Toyota remains the global leader in HEV sales with more than 85% share globally.

 

Tesla is teh global market leader with 13% market share, followed by BYD

 

ELECTRIC CAR MARKET IN CHINA

  • China is the biggest volume generator for BEVs. BEVs account for 80% of all EVs sold in China, the average everywhere else(except US) is <50%.Among the domestic OEMs, BYD Qin, Song and Tang PHEVs cumulatively sold ~123,000 units in 2018 , only in China
  • Oversupply-Even when EVs made up for just 5% of new car sales in 2018, there is already the issue of oversupply. More than 400 EV companies/start-ups are operating and many start-ups are in EV business only because of government`s financial support, they lack long term vision to establish themselves as a major electric vehicle manufacturer
  • Steep cuts in subsidy in March 2019- Now only BEVs with a min 250 KM range are eligible and the subsidy on BEVs with 400KM range has been halved to $3.8k(25,000 CNY) from $7.5k( 50,000 CNY)

 

ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET TRENDS

  • Market shift to higher segments in China-In 2018,the A00-class(entry level) made up 38% of all-electric passenger car sales, which is far lower than 64% in 2017. It clearly implies the market is maturing and the next volume growth will come from higher segments
  • So far GM has focused on making electric vehicles under its mass market Chevrolet brand, where it has been losing $7k-$8k on every unit, but going forward Cadillac will become General Motors ‘s lead electric vehicle brand.We believe, that’s the way only to compete in this space profitably, as premium models can absorb the high cost of battery, new tech, features and return decent margins
  • In US, Shortage of thin gauge electrical grade steel has complicated electric motor supply chain , and as a result many OEMs had delayed plans for vehicle electrification in recent past

 

ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET FORECAST

  • In China,we expect many long range BEV models with connected and semi-autonomous features to be introduced in the Chinese market post 2021 from all mainstream domestic brands like Geely , JAC, Great Wall Motors, SAIC etc ,many of them are under development right now
  • US is the second biggest country for EV sales, after China. The EV share of new car sales was 2% in 2018, which could go up to 7-8% by 2025
  • In Asia Ex China region,a lot of work needs to be done from policy and legislation perspective to jump-start the EV market in this region.Since, many countries in this region(India, ASEAN etc) are developing countries except Japan and South Korea, the average transaction price is $8,000-$12,000, too less for an EV
  • In Europe, the 95gm/km CO2 fleet average limit for 2021 is  major growth driver for PHEVs but the region still doesn’t have a mature supplier base of EV components

 

COMPANY PROFILES

  1. BYD
  2. JAC
  3. Geely
  4. Chery
  5. Roewe(SAIC)
  6. BMW
  7. Tesla Motors
  8. VW Group
  9. Renault- Nissan- Mitsubishi Alliance
  10. Hyundai-KIA Motors
  11. Robert Bosch GmBH
  12. Continental AG
  13. Magna International
  14. CATL
  15. Panasonic Corporation

 

THIS REPORT WILL ANSWER THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS

  1. Electric car market outlook for 2025, based on scenario (base case, best case, worst case)
  2. Details on new electric car models to be launched in 2020,2021, 2022,2025, by region, by OEM and their estimated annual market volumes
  3. Impact of electric car sales on ICE vehicles and decline in revenue and profitability for auto OEMs and suppliers
  4. Electric vehicle Charging infrastructure breakup by charger type, by region
  5. Strategies followed by top 10 OEMs and suppliers to improve their earnings and market share in electric car market

 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1Market Segmentation3
2Executive Summary5-6
3Introduction7-10
4Insights from Industry stakeholders11
5Key criteria for EV battery capacity, and vendor selection by OEMs12-13
6EV battery manufacturing in US, Europe and China14-15
7Breakdown of new EV concept vehicles by powertrain and battery capacity16-17
8Upcoming BEV platforms utilizing high capacity batteries18-19
9Disruptive innovations in EV battery chemistry and future of solid-state batteries20-21
10Details on legislation, subsidy and incentives linked with battery capacity22-23
11Growth in fuel cell vehicle market29-38
12Market Size ,Dynamics and Forecast By Sub-component29-38
13Market Size ,Dynamics and Forecast By Battery capacity39-48
14Market Size ,Dynamics and Forecast By EV type49-65
15Market Size ,Dynamics and Forecast By Geography66-78
16Competitive Landscape79-82
17OEM-supplier relationship in EV battery market27-28
18Company Profiles80-95
19Unmet needs and Market Opportunity for suppliers96-97
20Conclusion98-99
215 Key predictions100
22Appendix101
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