Global Electric Vehicle Transmission Market 2019-2025

September 3, 2019
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KEY FINDINGS

  1. As of Sep`19, 8 EV transmission products from global tier-1 suppliers are in validation phase
  2.  There are 51 PHEV models and 179 BEV models available for sale in China. In BEV segment , only 19 models belong to foreign manufactures and remaining 160 belong to domestic manufacturers, more than 98% of them have 1 speed transmission
  3. US had the highest, (32%) penetration of dual motor EVs i.e. with 2 EV transmission per vehicle
  4. In Europe,the top 3 best-selling EVs in 2018 i.e. Nissan Leaf(~40,000 units), Renault Zoe(~38,000 units) and BMW i3 (24,400 units)  had in-house manufactured motors coupled to a single speed transmission

 

INTRODUCTION

Transmission has always been an important part of every vehicle running on our roads today. The fuel economy, acceleration, driving comfort and pleasure are critical parameters of a vehicle buyer’s purchasing decision and very closely related with the choice of transmission on offer.

 

In EVs, the role of transmission in a buyer`s purchasing decision will not be as relevant as it is in a gas-powered vehicle. The reason being, in a gas-powered vehicle which operates between 1,000-7,000 RPM, transmission acts as an intermediary between engine and wheels. It  allows engine RPM reduction by many factors to be transmitted in a smooth manner to the wheels. But, in case of EVs, 100% of rated torque is available at 0 RPM and the motor has a flat torque curve. A single or 2 speed transmission does the job as compared 6,7,8 or now even 10 speed automatics.

 

As EV sales crossed 2M units in 2018, they still make up for just ~2% of global passenger car sales, but in a year where global passenger car sales at ~81M units, contracted by 0.7%(YoY), the EV sales grew by 75%(YOY). This is the reason why the EV transmission market is a greatly debated topic of discussion in the automotive transmission industry today.

 

FINAL DRIVE RATIO OF POPULAR BEVs WITH 1-SPEED TRANSMISSION

 

BrandModelReduction ratio
NissanLeaf8.13:1
TeslaModel S9.73:1(1st Motor), 9.34:1(2nd Motor)
TeslaModel 39:1
VolkswagenE-Golf3.61:1
ChevroletBolt7.05:1
HyundaiKona7.981:1
JaguarI-pace9.04:1(Both 1st and 2nd Motor)
AudiE-Tron9.205:1(Both 1st and 2nd Motor)
KiaE-Niro8.206:1

MARKET DYNAMICS

The single-multi speed EV transmission will grow in-line with the growth in low and medium range EVs, as cost is a major factor there. But, in the mid-size and premium vehicle category, we expect E-axles (motor+ transmission+ power electronics) to replace 1-2 speed transmission, as more PHEVs are launched in coming years.

 

We believe, SUVs, which accounted for 35% of global passenger vehicle sales in 2018 and are the only growing vehicle segment will have a major role in the growth of EV market globally. As, E-AWD penetration grows in SUVs , e-axle stands to gain from it significantly and is the biggest challenge to the EV transmission market. Read our E-axle report to know more about it.

 

 

MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST

BEVs (Battery electric vehicle) accounted for 71% of total EV sales in 2018 and in China which accounts for 50% of global EV market, the BEVs accounted for 76% of total EV sales. About 35% of EVs sold in China were compact hatchbacks powered by 25-40kWh battery, 80-120 hp motor and single speed transmission. Making it the biggest EV transmission market.

In US, Tesla accounted for 53% (191k units) of all EVs sold and all of them had single-speed transmission, making it the second biggest market.

In Europe, EV sales are driven by PHEVs and the best-sellers including Mitsubishi Outlander, BMW 225 Series Active Tourer and Mini Countryman, all have e-axles instead of individual transmission.

The EV transmission market was estimated at 2.6 Million units in 2019 and is expected to grow to 10.2 Million units by 2025, growing at 25% CAGR.

 

Ev transmission market segmented by geography,application and type

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

There are 10+ auto suppliers active in the electric vehicle transmission market and we have profiled the top 11. BorgWarner, GKN, Jatco are among the leading players but others profiled in the report are expanding aggressively to cater to multiple EV platforms and expand their share.

 

The powertrain (motor + transmission) of a BEV doesn`t cost more than 5-7% of total cost of the vehicle,  compared to a traditional gas-powered vehicle, where  powertrain cost is 18-20% of the vehicle cost. Batteries and power electronics on the other hand account for 25-30% of the cost of the vehicle.This is the reason why many established auto component suppliers are adopting different strategies to remain profitable in the growing EV market.For example,suppliers like Bosch and Continental, among the biggest global auto component suppliers are not present in the electric vehicle transmission market as yet. They are extensively banking on e-axles to grow in the EV driveline market.

 

 

COMPANY PROFILES
  1. Schaeffler AG
  2. Eaton Corporation
  3. Jatco Ltd
  4. GKN Driveline
  5. ZF Friedrichshafen AG
  6. Aisin Seiki Co., Ltd
  7. Allison Transmission
  8. Magna International Europe AG
  9. BorgWarner Inc.
  10. Oerlikon Graziano
  11. Dana Incorporated

 

 

THIS REPORT WILL ANSWER FOLLOWING QUESTIONS?
  1. What will be the electric vehicle transmission market size (Volume and Value),growth potential of this market in every region and vehicle segment?
  2. Global production breakup of EV transmission,by suppliers and their OEM relationship
  3. The associated risks to electric vehicle transmission market with growing volume of 48V Mild-hybrid system in Europe
  4. Latest trends in EV transmission,by every market segment
  5. Which vehicle platforms will drive maximum market volume and value?
  6. Which EV platforms are most profitable?
  7. How will e-axles impact the sales volume of stand-alone single/multi-speed transmission?
  8. The on-going developments in next generation EV transmission
  9. About EV transmission manufacturing in US, China and Europe
  10. Average B-2-B cost of EV transmission in top 5 EV markets
  11. In-house manufacturing vs outsourced transmission
  12. Market share of existing EV transmission suppliers and their alignment with OEMs
  13. Potential new entrants in EV transmission market
  14. To understand future growth strategy of auto suppliers in the EV transmission market
  15. The impact of micro-mobility and ride-hailing on EV sales

 

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1Market Segmentation3
2Executive Summary5-6
3Introduction7-10
4Insights from Industry stakeholders11
5Key criteria for EV Transmission adoption by OEMs12-13
6EV Transmission  manufacturing in US, Europe and China14-15
7Breakdown of new EV concept vehicles by powertrain16-17
8Upcoming EV platforms utilizing E-axle18-19
9Disruptive innovations in EV Transmission market20-21
10Cost breakup of EV transmission and average margin22-23
11Market Size ,Dynamics and Forecast By Input torque24-30
12Market Size ,Dynamics and Forecast By Application31-39
13Market Size ,Dynamics and Forecast By Geography41-55
14Market Size ,Dynamics and Forecast By Transmission type56-64
15Competitive Landscape65-69
16Market share of leading players70
17Company Profiles71-82
18Unmet needs and Market Opportunity for suppliers83-84
19Conclusion85
20Appendix86
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